我国人口、经济、空间的城市化及其互动  

Urbanization of population,economy and space and their interaction

作　　者：徐小钦 袁凯华 

机构地区：[1]资源与环境经济管理研究中心

出　　处：《城市问题》2014年第3期12-18,26,共8页Urban Problems

基　　金：国家社会科学基金项目(12BJL021)

摘　　要：为了探讨我国"人口、经济、空间"城市化系统内部互动机制,通过熵值赋权对中国1986-2011年的城市化水平进行了综合度量,利用VAR模型及相关检验对我国城市化的动态特征进行了实证分析。研究结果表明,我国的人口与经济城市化之间存在互为格兰杰原因的关联作用,但与空间城市化之间却呈现出单向的关联作用;进一步的脉冲分析、方差分解发现,产业推动的经济城市化构成了城市化系统的长期驱动因素,而户籍约束下的人口城市化的作用力度薄弱,政府推动下的空间城市化则呈现无序发展的特征;全面推进我国的城市化建设进程,需要进一步改革户籍制度、强化市场机能、约束政府行为,以推动城市化内部的协调发展。In order to investigate China＇ s ＂ population - economic - space＂, urbanization interactive mechanism within the system, this essay entropy empowerment from 1986 to 2011 for China＇ s urbanization level of comprehensive measures, the use of VAR models and related test is the dynamic characteristics of urbanization in China for the empirical analysis. The resuits show that： China＇ s population and economic urbanization Granger cause each other between the association role, but the space is having a unidirectional association urbanization effect; further pulse analysis, variance decomposition have found that industry- driven economy urbanization constitutes a urbanization, the long - term drivers of the system, while household population urbanization under the constraint of the role of the weak force, the space under the government to promote urbanization is showing disorderly development characteristics; comprehensively oromotethe construction of China＇ s urbanization process, the need for further reform of the household registration system, strengthen the market mechanism to restrain government acts to promote the coordinated development of urban interior.

关 键 词：“人口-经济-空间”城市化 互动机制 VAR模型 

分 类 号：F299.21[经济管理—国民经济]