江西省农地利用碳排放时空特征与脱钩弹性研究  

Economic development research on the spatial-temporal characteristics and decoupling elasticity of Jiangxi farm land use carbon emissions

作　　者：张婷[1,2] 张学玲[3] 蔡海生[1,2] 

机构地区：[1]江西农业大学江西省鄱阳湖流域农业与生态工程技术研究中心,江西南昌330045 [2]江西农业大学南昌市鄱阳湖生态重点实验室,江西南昌330045 [3]江西农业大学职业技术学院,江西南昌330045

出　　处：《广东农业科学》2014年第5期208-212,222,共6页Guangdong Agricultural Sciences

基　　金：国家科技支撑计划项目(2012BAC11B02);国家自然科学基金(40861029);江西省社会科学研究"十二五"规划项目(11YJ12;11Y13);江西教育厅科技项目(GJJ12218);江西省科技计划社会发展项目(20111BBG70003-2);江西省高校人文社科项目(GL1030)

摘　　要：基于化肥、农药、农膜、农业机械以及农业灌溉五个方面导致的碳排放,利用1995—2011年江西省农业投入统计数据,采用碳排放系数法计算江西省农地利用碳排放和碳排放强度,在Tapio脱钩模型的基础上分析江西省农地利用碳排放与农业经济增长之间的脱钩弹性关系。结果表明:1995—2011年,江西省碳排放总量呈现逐年增长的趋势,农地利用碳排放强度呈现先增强后减弱的趋势,各类农业活动中,化肥和农业机械化是主要的碳排放源。从区域差异来看,2010年江西省各设区市碳排放量排在第1位是赣州市,其碳排放量比最后1位的景德镇市多出近8.13倍;碳排放强度最高的为新余市,高达7.4657 t/hm2,最低的地区为景德镇市,仅为1.9240 t/hm2,只有新余市的1/3,碳排放量排在前7位的粮食主产区是江西省农地利用碳排放的主要来源地。从江西省农地利用碳排放与农业经济发展间的脱钩关系来看,1996-2011年间,其脱钩关系主要以弱脱钩、扩张连接、扩张负脱钩为主,说明近年来江西省以农业经济发展为主,在兼顾环境效应上表现不佳。Based on five aspects including chemical fertilizers, pesticides, agricultural films, agricultural machinery and agricultural irrigation, which led to carbon emissions, using carbon emissions coefficient method to measure the carbon emissions and strength of Jiangxi province during the period 1995-2011 and carbon emissions and strength of 11 districts in 2010. Results showed that, from 1995 to 2011, carbon emissions in Jiangxi province presented increasing trend year by year, farm land use carbon intensity showed firstly enhanced and then weakened trends, fertilizer and agricultural mechanization was the main sources of carbon emissions at all kinds of agricultural activities. From the point of regional difference in Jiangxi, carbon emissions of Ganzhou was in the first place in 2010, its carbon emissions relating to the last was nearly 8.13 times; The carbon emissions intensity of Xinyu was the first, up to 7.4657 t/hm2, while the lowest was Jingdezhen, only 1.9240 t/hm2, only 1/3 of Xinyu, seven major grain producing areas whose carbon emissions were at the top were the main source of farm land use carbon emissions in Jiangxi province. On this basis, this paper used Tapio decoupling model to analyze the deeoupling relationship between farm land use carbon emissions and agricultural economic development in Jiangxi province. The results showed that from 1996 to 2011, the main decoupling relationships between farm land use carbon emissions change and the agricultural economy development were weak decoupling, expansive connection, expansive negative decoupling, presenting Jiangxi province gave priority to agriculture economic development in recent years, performed poorly in the environment effect.

关 键 词：农地利用 碳排放 时空特征 脱钩弹性 江西省 

分 类 号：X196[环境科学与工程—环境科学] F320[经济管理—产业经济]