不确定需求下供应链定价延迟策略研究  

Price Postponement Strategy in the Supply Chain under Uncertain Demand

作　　者：张克勇[1] 侯世旺[2] 周国华[3] 

机构地区：[1]中北大学经济与管理学院,山西太原030051 [2]中北大学机械工程与自动化学院,山西太原030051 [3]西南交通大学经济管理学院,四川成都610031

出　　处：《管理工程学报》2014年第1期195-201,共7页Journal of Industrial Engineering and Engineering Management

基　　金：中国博士后科学基金资助项目(2011M501272);铁道部科技研究开发计划项目重点课题资助项目(2011D010-D);中北大学科学基金资助项目(2011-56)

摘　　要：构建了依赖价格的随机需求下的供应链定价延迟策略模型,运用博弈论对模型进行了分析,研究表明销售商采取定价延迟策略时,其制定的销售价格不会导致过量需求,并论证了此时销售商最优订购量的存在性和唯一性。进一步通过数值仿真分析发现:销售商采取定价延迟策略能够降低其市场不确定性风险,同时销售商的订购量增加,并提高了供应链系统成员的期望利润,尤其是当供应链系统渠道利润相对较小时,与无延迟相比定价延迟策略的优势更为明显。In the uncertain fluctuation remarket environment,dealing with and avoiding the risk of uncertainty is particularly important.The postponement strategy is considered an effective strategy to realize agile supply chain management in order to deal with the risk of market uncertainty.In this paper,we build a price postponement strategy game model in a two-echelon supply chain under the price-dependent stochastic demand.In the non-cooperative game situation,a manufacturer acts as the leader and a retailer acts as the follower.We analyze the effect of price postponement on the decision-making and profit of members in a newsvendor model based on game theory.In this model,the manufacturer sets the wholesale price and offers a buyback contract to the retailer,and the retailer determines the order quantity and retail price.The retailer uses a postponement strategy by delaying its retail price decision until after remarker demand uncertainty is observed.Research shows that the retailer will never set a retail price which will induce excess demand under the price postponement strategy.This study demonstrates the existence and uniqueness of the optimal order quantity of the retailer.Numerical simulation also shows that the retailer＇s order quantity is more than and price is less than no-postponement when retailer adopts the price postponement strategy.This strategy can reduce market uncertainty risk for retailers under the price dependent stochastic demand.At the same time,with the increase of the manufacturer＇s production cost,the selling price （or expected price） will increase,order quantity will decrease,and the expected profit of the manufacture and retailer will decrease under the two pricing models.We also show that price postponement is quite beneficial for channel members and can increase the whole channel profit in the supply chain system.As such,price postponement could be viewed as a viable strategy to increase channel efficiency.In particular,the effect of price postponement is quite substantial when the

关 键 词：供应链 不确定需求 定价延迟 风险规避 

分 类 号：F270[经济管理—企业管理]