住房价格长期趋势与短期波动影响因素研究——基于全国35个大中城市的面板数据  

A Research on Influencing Factors of Housing Prices on Both the Long-term Trends and Short-term Fluctuations: Based on Panel Data of 35 Large and Medium-sized Cities in China

作　　者：安辉[1] 王立婷[1] 谷宇[1] 

机构地区：[1]大连理工大学经济学院,辽宁大连116024

出　　处：《预测》2014年第2期13-19,共7页Forecasting

基　　金：教育部人文社会科学基金资助项目(10YJA790002);大连市科技局资助项目(2010D13ZC132)

摘　　要：本文基于2002年至2010年全国35个大中城市的面板数据,利用AH模型对住房价格进行拟合,并从长期趋势和短期波动两个角度对住房价格的影响因素进行研究。研究结果表明:在全国,土地价格水平、房地产开发投资额、地区人均国内生产总值、人口、住房贷款利率、人均收入等六个解释变量在住房价格长期趋势方面有较大作用,其中房地产开发投资额及人口是住房价格短期波动的重要影响因素。同时,不同区域的住房价格影响因素也会有所不同。In this paper, we establish AH model to simulate the real housing price based on panel data of 35 large and medium-sized cities and analyze the factors affecting housing prices from both the long-term trends and short-term fluctuations. The results show that： in China, land prices, real estate investment, regional GDP per capita, population, housing loan interest rate and income per capita are the main factors of housing prices in the long run, while real estate investment and population can have a significant effect on short-term housing prices. Meanwhile, diverse factors are influencing different regions of China.

关 键 词：住房价格 影响因素 AH模型 

分 类 号：F293.3[经济管理—国民经济]