住房需求与经济基本面——基于购房者风险偏好视角的研究  

Housing Demand and Economic Fundamentals:A Research Based on Purchasers' Different Risk Preference

作　　者：罗安邦[1] 

机构地区：[1]天津财经大学金融与保险研究中心,300040

出　　处：《南方经济》2014年第3期81-97,共17页South China Journal of Economics

摘　　要：文章通过建立住房需求与商品消费跨期决策模型,将收入、物价、房价、房贷、利率、人口等经济基本面因素纳入局部均衡分析中,证明了这些变量对住房需求的影响主要取决于购房者的风险态度,住房需求与经济基本面之间主要表现为一种抛物线关系,其开口方向由风险偏好态度决定。采用门限面板模型、平滑转换面板模型和半参估计方法,对1999年到2012年全国31个省面板数据进行实证检验,表明我国目前购房者主要是风险爱好型。This paper, by building the inter- temporal decision model of housing demand and goods consuming, incorporates some economic fundamentals： income, CP1, housing price, mortgage, interest rates, population and so on into an unified analysis framework and proves that all these variables＇ impacts on housing demand are mainly determined by purchasers＇ different risk preference shaped in a parabola curve, whose orientation is determined by different risk preference. By utilizing Panel Threshold Regression, Panel Smooth Transfer Regerssion and semiparameter to test panel data of 31 Chinese provinces from 1999 to 2012, this paper proves that at present, the majority of Chinese housing purchasers are risk lovers.

关 键 词：住房需求经 济基本面 风险偏好 非线性 

分 类 号：F293[经济管理—国民经济]