中国“举国体制”应对巨灾的经济效益评估方法及应用  

COST-BENEFIT ANALYSIS OF CHINA'S STATE-RUN NATURAL DISASTER RELIEF SYSTEM:METHODS AND APPLICATION

作　　者：吴吉东[1,2] 郝晓琳[2] 李宁[2,3] 张洁[2] 傅宇[2] 

机构地区：[1]北京师范大学环境演变与自然灾害教育部重点实验室,北京100875 [2]民政部/教育部减灾与应急管理研究院,北京100875 [3]北京师范大学地表过程与资源生态国家重点实验室,北京100875

出　　处：《北京师范大学学报（自然科学版）》2014年第1期100-104,共5页Journal of Beijing Normal University(Natural Science)

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(41101506);高等学校博士学科点专项科研基金资助项目(20110003120022)

摘　　要：在分析灾害经济影响机制及中国"举国体制"在加速2008年汶川地震灾区经济恢复作用的基础上,将"举国体制"的加速重建以加速生产能力项引入到地区投入产出模型中,模拟并对比有、无举国体制情景下的灾区经济恢复进程,评估举国体制在减轻灾害间接经济损失中的作用.结果显示:举国体制中的举国救灾、对口支援等措施加速了灾后经济恢复进程,2008—2012年间,至少使灾害造成的间接经济损失减少5 552亿元,同时因灾获益4 588亿元;同时,本研究也为评估灾害风险管理策略的效益提供了一种方法.Catastrophes have become a restricting factor to social-economic development. China＇s state-run natural disaster relief system, characterized by national resource support in disaster relief period and counterpart assistance and preferential policies in recovery periods, has highlighted its advantage in reducing disaster impact and in accelerating disaster recovery and reconstruction. But how to quantify and to assess its economic benefits？ Economic impact mechanism and response of the state-run relief system to 2008 Wenchuan earthquake were analyzed. This paper proposed a cost-benefit analysis framework to evaluate its economic benefits of state-run system with an input-output model, state-run disaster relief and reconstruction effort was considered as accelerated production capacity which was drawn into economic model. Monthly economic developments post-disaster with and without state-run system scenarios were compared to evaluate benefit of the state-run disaster management system in reducing economic losses in disaster. Preliminary data showed that this system decreased indirect （or higher-order） economic loss by 555 billion RMB from 2008 to 2012, Sichuan province received 459 billion RMB for this earthquake. This study provided a method for evaluation of disaster risk management strategies.

关 键 词：自然灾害 举国体制 间接经济损失 投入产出模型 效益 汶川地震 

分 类 号：F279.241[经济管理—企业管理]