基于故障数据的导弹突发故障预测方法  

Missile Sudden Fault Prediction Based on Fault Data

作　　者：丛林虎[1] 徐廷学[1] 卜祝涛 杨继坤[1] 

机构地区：[1]海军航空工程学院 [2]92514部队

出　　处：《战术导弹技术》2014年第2期43-47,共5页Tactical Missile Technology

基　　金：航空科学基金(20085584010)项目编号(40108)

摘　　要：针对导弹突发故障发生时间短,难以直接预测等问题,在一定置信度的前提下,基于故障数据对导弹突发故障预测方法进行了研究。对故障数据进行统计推断,确定了故障数据的分布规律,进而基于故障数据分布函数建立了导弹突发故障预测模型,得出了导弹未来一段时间内的突发故障概率。最后通过算例分析,验证了导弹突发故障预测模型的合理性。Aiming at the problem of missile sudden fault happening in a short time and predicted hardly, the method of missile sudden fault prediction is researched based on the fault data at certain credibility. The distribution regularity of fault data is obtained by statistical inference. Further more, the sudden fault prediction model of missile is established to get the future sudden fault probability of missile based on the distribution function of fault data. Finally, the results of case analysis validate the rationality of sudden fault prediction model.

关 键 词：导弹 故障预测 故障数据 数理统计 

分 类 号：TJ760[兵器科学与技术—武器系统与运用工程]