基于元胞历史负荷数据的负荷密度指标法  

A Load Density Index Method Based on Historical Data of Cell Load

作　　者：肖白[1] 杨修宇[1] 穆钢[1] 宋坤[2] 

机构地区：[1]东北电力大学电气工程学院,吉林省吉林市132012 [2]辽宁省电力有限公司电力经济技术研究院,辽宁省沈阳市110015

出　　处：《电网技术》2014年第4期1014-1019,共6页Power System Technology

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(51177009)~~

摘　　要：已有负荷密度指标的求取方法往往忽视了对实测历史负荷数据的挖掘,或是忽略了同类负荷的非均匀分布问题,为此提出了一种基于元胞历史负荷数据的负荷密度指标法。该方法通过I类元胞的负荷密度确定分类负荷密度协调系数,根据I类元胞的历史负荷与其供电面积、用地信息、分类负荷密度之间的约束关系,建立元胞负荷与分类负荷密度的关系方程,并采用最小二乘法求取分类负荷密度指标,利用已求得的历年分类负荷密度指标预测其在目标年的大小,求出每个II类元胞的负荷值,从而实现空间负荷预测。工程实例验证了该方法的实用性和有效性。In existing methods to obtain load density index the mining of measured historical data is frequently neglected, or the non-uniform distribution of homogeneous loads is ignored. For this reason, a cell load historical data based load density index method is proposed. Through the load density of class I cell, the coordination coefficient of classified load density is determined, and according to the historical load of class I cell and the constraint relation among its power supply area, land use information and classified load densities the relation equations of cell load and classified load densities are established and the classified load density index is obtained by least square method. Using the obtained classified load density index of past years the load density in the target year can be predicted, and the load value of each class II cell is solved, thus the spatial load forecasting is implemented. The practicality and validity of the proposed method are verified by engineering example.

关 键 词：空间负荷预测 负荷密度指标 地理信息系统 协调系数 元胞 

分 类 号：TM715[电气工程—电力系统及自动化]