保定市电力行业碳排放计量与预测  

Research of electricity industry carbon emissions measurement and load forecasting in Baoding

作　　者：徐杰[1,2] 

机构地区：[1]华北电力大学经济与管理学院,北京102206 [2]河北大学管理学院,河北保定071002

出　　处：《河北大学学报（自然科学版）》2014年第2期122-128,共7页Journal of Hebei University(Natural Science Edition)

基　　金：教育部中央高校科研重点项目(12ZX21)

摘　　要：对作为中国8个低碳城市试点之一的保定市2008—2010年电力行业的碳排放进行了准确计量.计量结果是2008—2010年的碳排放分别为4.100 6×106,4.216 8×106,4.153 3×106 t.同时对2011—2020年电力系统的碳排放进行了回归预测,分析了节能减排的可能性和空间,并提出大力发展清洁发电技术、低碳技术与资金的引入、调整区域电力战略规划和电源结构、实行差别电价制度,鼓励使用绿色电力等一些解决措施.The electricity industry carbon emissions were measured accurately from 2008 to 2010 in Baoding which was one of the eight low - carbon pilot cities in China. Carbon emissions in 2008 to 2010 were 4. 100 6 × 106 , 4. 2168 × 106 , 4. 153 3 × 106 t. Electricity industry carbon emissions were taken regres- sion forecasting in 2011 to 2020. At last it was analyzed the possibility of energy saving and emission re- duction, and put forward some solutions such as： making great efforts to develop clean power generation technologies; introduction of low-carbon technology and capital; adjusting strategic planning and regional power supply structure; implementation of differential pricing system to encourage the use of green elec- tricity.

关 键 词：电力行业 碳排放 负荷预测 

分 类 号：F224.0[经济管理—国民经济] O211.67[理学—概率论与数理统计]