流域水循环系统多维调控方案的评价与优选  

Scenario evaluation and optimal selection for multidimensional regulation of water cycle systems in basins

作　　者：徐凯[1] 汪林[1] 甘治国[1] 季海萍[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国水利水电科学研究院流域水循环模拟与调控国家重点实验室,北京100038

出　　处：《河海大学学报（自然科学版）》2014年第2期118-123,共6页Journal of Hohai University(Natural Sciences)

基　　金：国家重点基础研究发展计划(973计划)(2006CB403408);水利部公益性行业科研专项(201001018;201101016)

摘　　要：分析水循环系统在"自然-社会"二元驱动下产生的五维属性,利用熵理论与协同学理论对水循环系统多维调控方案进行评价与比选:选取各维属性特征值作为调控方案的评价指标(序参量),建立评价指标与水循环系统五维属性间的量化关系;提出单一方案系统协调度评价指标与组合方案有序度综合距离评价指标,评价和比选单一调控方案和组合调控方案的水循环系统整体调控效果,确定较优的单一调控方案与组合调控方案。以海河流域为例,验证所提出的水循环系统多维调控方案评价与优选方法的可行性。Five-dimensional characteristics of a natural-social dualistic water cycle system were analyzed. The entropy theory and the synergetic theory were used to evaluate and compare the multidimensional regulation scenarios of the water cycle system. Dominant factors （ order parameters） of multi-attributes were regarded as the evaluation indices for the regulation scenarios. A quantitative relationship between the evaluation indices and the five-dimensional characteristics of the water cycle system was established. The evaluation indices of system coordination degree and integrated distances of order degree were established for regulation alternatives in order to quantitatively evaluate the effects of multidimensional regulation and to determine the optimal scenario. The feasibility of the proposed methods for scenario evaluation and optimal selection for multidimensional regulation of the water cycle system were verified through a case study in the Haihe Basin.

关 键 词：水循环系统 多维调控 方案评价 熵理论 协同学 海河流域 

分 类 号：TV213.4[水利工程—水文学及水资源]