重庆市综合灾害风险模糊综合评价  

Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation of Integrated Disaster Risk in Chongqing

作　　者：杨娟[1] 王龙[2] 徐刚[2] 

机构地区：[1]重庆第二师范学院旅游与服务管理系,重庆400065 [2]西南大学地理科学学院,重庆400715

出　　处：《地球与环境》2014年第2期252-259,共8页Earth and Environment

基　　金：重庆市社会科学规划项目(2010QNZH32)

摘　　要：在重庆市灾害系统研究的基础上,依据科学性、系统性、可靠性和简明性的原则,结合实际选取评价因子,初步建立了重庆市综合灾害风险评价指标体系。以统计资料及政府公开资料为主要数据来源。使用模糊综合评判(FCE)方法构建数学模型,采用二级综合评判对重庆市各评价单元灾害风险度进行评判。根据最大隶属度原则,将重庆市各区县灾害风险度划分为五个等级,并使用GIS软件生成"重庆市灾害风险等级分布图"。最后对评判结果分析得出以下结论:(1)重庆市整体灾害综合风险水平较高;(2)全市存在两个灾害高风险等级中心;(3)沿长江、嘉陵江、乌江干流的各区县综合灾害风险等级高于其他各区县。On the basis of research on Chongqing disaster system, a preliminary disaster risk evaluation index system has been established not only according to the principles of scientifieity, systematicness, reliability and simplicity, but also in combination with the actual selection of evaluation factors. Every unit of disaster risk in Chongqing was evaluated through secondary comprehensive evaluation, based on the mathematical model by the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation （FCE） method and the main data sources of statistics, and open government information. According to the principle of ＂maximum membership degree＂, the disaster risk degree in Chongqing municipal districts and counties is divided into five grades, and then a map of it is established through GIS software. Finally, three conclusions have been drawn according to the analysis of the evaluation results： （1） integrated disaster risk level is higher in Chongqing; （2） there are two high disaster risk level centers; and （3） the disaster risk levels of districts and counties along the Yangtze River, Jialing River and Wujiang River trunk streams are higher than those of other districts and counties.

关 键 词：灾害系统 模糊综合评判 灾害风险 重庆市 

分 类 号：X43[环境科学与工程—灾害防治]