官员任期、政绩压力和城市房价——基于中国35个大中城市的经验研究  

Official' s Tenure,Achievement Pressure and the Urban Housing Prices in China

作　　者：郭峰[1,2] 胡军[2,3] 

机构地区：[1]复旦大学经济学院,上海200433 [2]上海新金融研究院,上海200002 [3]上海财经大学经济学院,上海200433

出　　处：《经济管理》2014年第4期9-18,共10页Business and Management Journal ( BMJ )

摘　　要：本文利用2002～2010年间在我国35个大中城市任职的市长和市委书记的详细个人信息，以及城市房价和经济基本面指标等数据，研究了官员任期和政绩压力对城市房价的影响。本文研究发现，官员任期和政绩压力对城市房价均有显著影响。具体而言，官员任期与城市房价存在倒U型关系，官员的政绩压力对房价有显著的正向影响。并且在官员任期较短时，政绩压力会加剧官员任期对城市房价的正向促进作用；而当任期较长时，政绩压力又会阻碍官员任期对城市房价的反向抑制作用。本文的结论通过了多种稳健性分析。The problem of housing is an economic issue, but also a people＇ s livelihood issues, which affects the stability of our society. In the current political and economic environment of China, the local government plays an important role in the real estate industry. Almost all provincial governments and prefecture-level city govern- ments （and even many county governments） regard the real estate industry as the region ruainstay industry. This is because in the ＂promotion tournament＂, higher GDP means higher probability of promotion, and the real estate boom will lead to the development of other related industries, and GDP growth. Therefore, we need understand the role of the local officials in the promotion of the housing price. In this paper, using the detail personal information of the mayor and party chief of the city, as well as the ur- ban housing price and economic fundamentals indicators of the 35 large and medium-sized cities in China, we study the influence of official＇ s tenure and achievement pressure on the urban housing prices. Our study finds that offi- cial＇ s tenure and achievement pressure have a significant impact on the urban housing prices. Firstly, the official＇ s tenure and urban housing prices exhibit an inversed U relationship. With the growth of official tenure, the motion of officials to promotion increases, he will work harder, and has a stronger incentive to push up the housing prices. When the official tenure is longer, the probability of the official to promotion will reduce, so as the effort of the offi- cial to pay, therefore the local officials will pay on effort to push up the housing prices. Secondly, achievement pressure has a positive impact on the housing prices. If economic growth, revenue growth, investment growth of a city is worse than the ＂competitor＂ of the city in the previous year, the city officials will has a greater pressure to promote the housing prices. We also find that, when the tenure is short, the achievement pressure will intensify the posit

关 键 词：晋升锦标赛 官员任期 政绩压力 城市房价 

分 类 号：F062.6[经济管理—政治经济学]