基于SD模型的巢湖流域可持续发展研究  

Research on sustainable development of Chaohu lake basin based on system dynamic model

作　　者：李少朋[1] 高良敏[1] 母玉敏[1] 叶圆圆[1] 

机构地区：[1]安徽理工大学,安徽淮南232001

出　　处：《水资源与水工程学报》2014年第1期112-116,共5页Journal of Water Resources and Water Engineering

基　　金：国家水体污染控制与治理科技重大专项(2008ZX07103-007)

摘　　要：根据生态经济理论,利用SD模型方法,基于经济增长、生态环境影响和社会变化之间的反馈关系,构建了巢湖流域"环境—社会—经济"结构模型。通过设定环境、社会和经济3个子系统,采用系统动力学模拟分析软件Vensim PLE,对巢湖流域"环境—社会—经济"运行规律进行了研究,包括经济发展优先模式、自然基准模式和环境协调发展模式;通过比较得出最佳模式,可为促进巢湖流域可持续发展提供借鉴。According to ecological economic theory and using SD model approach,based on the feedback relationship between economic growth,ecological environment and social change,this paper built ＂environment-society-economy＂structural model in Chaohu lake basin. Through seting the relationship of environment,society and economy,using system analysis software Vensim PLE,this paper discussed the operation law of ＂environment-society-economy＂of Chaohu lake basin,witch include the priority mode of economic development,the natural reference mode and the environmental development model. It finally reached the optimum mode through comparing these three models. The result can provide guidance for sustainable development of Chaohu lake basin.

关 键 词：生态环境 绿色GDP SD模型 巢湖流域 可持续发展 

分 类 号：X24[环境科学与工程—环境科学]