干旱变化、影响及适应调查与分析——以宁夏回族自治区为例  

Investigation and Analysis on the Changes,Impacts and Adaptations of Drought in Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region,China

作　　者：谭春萍[1,2] 杨建平[1] 李曼[1,2] 王世金[1] 王生霞[2,3] 韩春坛[3,4] 

机构地区：[1]中国科学院寒区旱区环境与工程研究所冰冻圈科学国家重点实验室,甘肃兰州730000 [2]中国科学院大学,北京100049 [3]中国科学院寒区旱区环境与工程研究所中国科学院内陆河流域生态水文重点实验室,甘肃兰州730000 [4]中国科学院寒区旱区环境与工程研究所黑河上游生态-水文试验研究站,甘肃兰州730000

出　　处：《灾害学》2014年第2期84-89,共6页Journal of Catastrophology

基　　金：国家重大科学研究计划项目(2012CB955404)

摘　　要：基于实地考察、访谈和问卷调查获得的321份有效问卷数据,运用频数统计、综合评价模型和模糊综合评价法,详细分析了宁夏地区被调查者对干旱变化及其影响的认识、适应能力及适应措施,定量评估了已有措施的实施效果。结果显示,宁夏地区干旱总体在加重,干旱对农(牧)业生产有显著影响,81.3%的受调查者认为干旱的影响以"粮食减产或绝收"为主;农户对干旱的适应意识较强,但适应能力较弱,而政府部门的适应意识与能力相对较强;针对干旱,农户在生活、生产中分别以"挖水窖"和"抽取井水"措施为主,政府则主要采取"退耕还林还草工程"、"发展高效节水农业"和"水窖集雨工程"等措施;政府实施措施的总得分为3.85,效果总体较好,但在农村的落实度不足。Based on 321 valid questionnaire data obtained from field survey, interview and questionnaire sur- vey, the informants＇ cognitions for the changes and impacts of drought, their adaptabilities to drought, and the ad- aptation measures in Ningxia are analyzed with the aid of frequency statistics method and comprehensive evaluation model. The implementation effects of adaptation measures are quantitatively evaluated by fuzzy comprehensive eval- uation method. Results are as follows： it is believed that the drought is overall aggravating in Ningxia; the husband- ry production suffered from drought greatly, and 81.3 % of the respondents considered that the influence is given priority to Grain Production Reduction or Failure. Peasant households have strong adaptation consciousnesses and low adaptabilities to drought, whereas the governments have relatively strong adaptation conseiousnesses and adapt- abilities. Against drought, peasant households gave priorities to Digging Cellar in daily life and Extracting Well Water in production; the governments, however, mainly adopted Grain for Green Project, Developing High Effi- cient Water-saving Agriculture and the Cellar Rainwater Harvesting Project, and so on. The implementation effect of the government measures against drought is overall good, with a total score of 3.85. However, it is not enough for the government measures to put into practice in country.

关 键 词：干旱 适应 问卷调查 模糊综合评价法 宁夏地区 

分 类 号：S423[农业科学—植物保护] X43[环境科学与工程—灾害防治]