1990年以来我国沿海地区台风灾害对土地利用影响的风险分析  

Typhoon Disasters in China's Coastal Areas and Risk Assessment of its Impact on Land Use Since 1990

作　　者：郭腾蛟[1] 徐新良[2] 王召海[1] 

机构地区：[1]山东师范大学人口·资源与环境学院,山东济南250014 [2]中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所,资源与环境信息系统国家重点实验室,北京100101

出　　处：《灾害学》2014年第2期193-198,共6页Journal of Catastrophology

基　　金：环境保护部和中国科学院全国生态环境十年变化遥感调查与评估项目(STSN-14-00);中国科学院西部行动计划项目(KZCX2-XB3-08-01);国家科技支撑计划(2013BAC03B01)

摘　　要：在分析我国东南沿海台风灾害时空特征的基础上,揭示了1990年以来土地利用变化所导致的台风灾害风险的演变特征。研究发现:在台风灾害危险性方面,沿海地区受台风影响的空间差异较大,灾次指数呈明显的带状特征,由东南向西北递减,台湾、广东省、福建省沿海地区,受灾次数在50次以上。在台风风险性方面,上海、杭州、南京、福州和广州等城市及周边县区,由于建设用地高度集中,风险指数高达1.0以上。在1990-2000以及2000-2008年间,由于土地利用类型变化导致风险指数变化较为显著。其中风险指数增高的地区多为林、草地转为居民地、建设用地和耕地,而风险指数降低的地区,多数为耕地转成林、草地。Based on the analysis of typhoon disaster on the southeastern coast of China on the basis of charac- teristics of time and space, characteristics of typhoon disaster risk evolution as a result of land cover change since 1990 are revealed. Results show that coastal regions presented a significant spatial diversity in the aspect of typhoon disaster risk. Disaster frequency index appeared significant zonal distribution, on a diminishing scale from southeast to the northwest. Among them, the coastal regions of Taiwan, Guangdong and Fujian are affected over 50 times. Due to the high density build-up area, risk index of urban areas, such as Shanghai, Hangzhou, Nanjing, Fuzhou, Guangzhou and surrounding counties, reached above 1.0 in the aspect of typhoon disaster carrying ability. Risk in- dex changed significantly because of land cover change in the period of 1990 -2000 and 2000 -2008. The most prominent transition in the regions where the risk index increased was the conversion from forestland/grassland to build=up area/arable land. The most prominent transition in the regions where the risk index decreased was the conversion from arable land to forestland or grassland.

关 键 词：沿海地区 台风灾害 土地利用 风险评估 

分 类 号：P444[天文地球—大气科学及气象学] X43[环境科学与工程—灾害防治]