台风灾害下城市应急策略对城市应急能力的影响  

City Emergency Ability Influenced by City Emergency Strategy under the Background of Typhoon Disaster

作　　者：孙少文[1] 杨斌[1] 胡志华[1] 温馨[1] 

机构地区：[1]上海海事大学物流研究中心,上海201306

出　　处：《灾害学》2014年第2期204-212,共9页Journal of Catastrophology

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(71171129);上海市科委科研计划项目(111510501900;12dz1124802);上海市教委科研项目(11YZ137);上海海事大学研究生创新基金资助项目(GK2013027)

摘　　要：以台风灾害为背景,分析影响城市应急能力的主要因素,建立了城市应急能力及城市应急弹性的基础模型和拓展模型;通过对不同强度的台风采取不同的城市应急策略,研究了城市应急策略对应急能力和应急弹性的影响;针对连续性台风灾害,比较了混合应急策略与单一应急策略对城市应急能力恢复的影响。结果表明:应对不同强度的台风灾害,城市最优应急策略存在一定差异;调试应急资源和应急系数可以优化应急策略;城市应急弹性能够反映城市应急能力;在连续性灾害中,混合应急策略优于单一应急策略的采用,而且混合应急策略在顺序上的调整不会影响应急成本,但会改变城市应急能力。Under the background of typhoon disaster, the principle factors which affect the city emergency abili- ty are analyzed and a basic model and a development model of city emergency ability and resilience are established. Through adopting different emergency strategy to different intensity of typhoon disasters, research on the influence of emergency strategy to ability and resilience is done. In terms of continuous typhoon disaster, effects of single strategy and mixed strategy on the recovery of city emergency ability are compared. The results suggest that, coping with ty- phoon disaster of different strength, the city optimal emergency strategy have some differences. Emergency strategy by debugging the emergency resources and coefficients can be optimized. The city emergency resilience can reflect abili- ty. In continuous disasters, adopting mixed strategy is better than the single one ; what＇ s more, exchanging sequence of two different strategies doesn＇ t affect emergency costs, but has some effect on emergency ability.

关 键 词：台风灾害 城市应急策略 城市应急能力 应急资源 弹性 

分 类 号：X43[环境科学与工程—灾害防治]