新疆1990-2010年能源消费碳排放脱钩及其驱动因素分析  

CARBON EMISSION ABJUNCTION AND DRIVES OF XINJIANG ENERGY CONSUMPTION DURING 1990-2010

作　　者：张新林[1,2] 王强[1] 王长建[1,2] 鲁建荣[1,2] 

机构地区：[1]中国科学院新疆生态与地理研究所,新疆乌鲁木齐830011 [2]中国科学院大学资源与环境学院,北京100049

出　　处：《资源与产业》2014年第2期76-82,共7页Resources & Industries

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(41001384)

摘　　要：通过构建脱钩理论的Tapio脱钩模型,研究新疆1990—2010年经济增长与CO_2排放的脱钩关系及程度,分析发展的时间演变趋势。借助IPAT模型及结构分解分析法(structure decomposition analysis,SDA),从碳排放总量及能源强度方面,对脱钩弹性影响因素进行分析。结果表明:1990—2010年,新疆经济增长与CO_2排放之间处于弱脱钩及扩张连接状态;各个脱钩状态下,影响CO_2排放的主要因素是规模效应;通过技术进步来促使CO_2排放强度下降是实现新疆经济增长与碳排放增长脱钩的重要手段,但不能将技术进步作为提高能源效率的唯一手段来实现节能。This paper, through setting up Tapio abjunction model, studies the abjunction relation between economy and carbon dioxide emission in Xinjiang during 1990 -2010, analyzes its temporal evolution, by means of IPAT model and Structure Decomposition Analysis （SDA） , discusses its drives from gross carbon emission and energy strength. The result indicates a weak abjunetion and expansion connecting between economy and carbon dioxide emission. The major drive of carbon dioxide emission is scale effect. Technical innovation in decreasing carbon dioxide emission strength is a vital tool in abjunction between economy and carbon dioxide emission, but can not be regarded as the sole means in saving energy.

关 键 词：CO2排放 脱钩效应 驱动因素 新疆 

分 类 号：X24[环境科学与工程—环境科学] F426.2[经济管理—产业经济]