基于分形插值理论的水库泥沙淤积量模型构建  

Development of Reservoir Sedimentation Model Based on Fractal Interpolation Theory

作　　者：高洪波[1] 段文超 

机构地区：[1]江苏城市职业学院,江苏南通226006 [2]长江水利委员会水文局,武汉430014

出　　处：《南水北调与水利科技》2014年第2期34-36,53,共4页South-to-North Water Transfers and Water Science & Technology

摘　　要：水库泥沙淤积量的科学预测对于水库的合理调度、综合效益的发挥有着重要的意义。为了准确预测水库泥沙淤积量,首先,基于分形理论,探讨了基于分形插值的、具有外推功能的预测模型构建方法;其次,通过实例验证了水库泥沙淤积量变化具有较好的分形特征;最后,利用分形插值预测模型对未来时间点水库泥沙淤积量进行了预测。实证分析表明:采用这种方法构建的水库泥沙淤积量模型具有较高的可靠性,且便于编程,因此是一种实用性较强的水库泥沙淤积量模型建构方法。Scientific prediction of reservoir sedimentation volume is of great significance for the reasonable regulation and devel-opment of comprehensive benefit of the reservoir .In order to accurately predict the amount of sediment deposition in the reser-voir ,firstly this paper discussed the method of prediction model construction with extrapolation function based on the theory of fractal interpolation ;secondly ,the variation of reservoir sedimentation volume was verified with good fractal characteristics ;fi-nally ,the amount of sediment deposition in the reservoir in future was predicted using the fractal interpolation model .The em-pirical results showed that the model constructed in this paper has the advantages of high reliability and convenient program-ming ;therefore it is an effective model construction method for reservoir sedimentation .

关 键 词：分形插值 自相似性 水库泥沙淤积量 预测模型构建 

分 类 号：TV213[水利工程—水文学及水资源]