城市化与犯罪率非线性动态关系实证研究  

Empirical Study on the Non-Linear Dynamic Relationship between Urbanization and Crime Rate

作　　者：郭涛[1] 阎耀军[1] 

机构地区：[1]天津工业大学管理学院,天津300387

出　　处：《统计与信息论坛》2014年第4期96-99,共4页Journal of Statistics and Information

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重点项目<基于政策模拟方法的社会稳定风险研究>(13ASH003);天津工业大学管理学院创新基金项目<城市化与犯罪问题系统建模及政策模拟>(GLKJCX20130019)

摘　　要：城市化进程改变了中国的社会、经济结构,对犯罪的影响也在发生变化,因此城市化与犯罪率之间存在线性关系的原假设也需要进行调整。利用MSVAR模型方法,对1978—2011年中国犯罪率与城市化率之间的非线性关系进行研究。研究结果表明:1978—2011年中国犯罪率与城市化率之间的非线性关系存在显著的2区制特征,在区制2(城市化快速发展),城市化进程显著地推动了犯罪率的增长;在区制1(城市化适速发展),二者不存在显著的影响关系。China＇s social and economic structure has been reshaped by the process of rapid urbanization, so is the influence on crimes of urbanization. Therefore, the hypothesis that a linear relationship exists between urbanization and crime rate as documented by many previous studies need to be reexamined in the new context. Using data from the year 1978 to 2011, the present study employed the MSVAR model to investigate the non-linear relationship between crime rate and urbanization rate. The results showed that the non-linear relationship during this time pan has salient two regime system features. That is in regime 2 where urbanization develops rapidly, the urbanization rate significantly contributed to the growth of crime; whereas in regime 1 where urbanization develops at an optimum speed, no significant relationship between the two was detected.

关 键 词：城市化 犯罪率 非线性关系 马尔可夫向量自回归模型 

分 类 号：DF792[政治法律—诉讼法学]