生产要素拥挤与最优集聚度识别——行业异质性的视角  

Congestion of Production Factors and Optimal Agglomeration Recognition——Based on the Perspective of Industry Heterogeneity

作　　者：沈能[1] 赵增耀[1] 周晶晶[1] 

机构地区：[1]苏州大学东吴商学院,江苏苏州215021

出　　处：《中国工业经济》2014年第5期83-95,共13页China Industrial Economics

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目"FDI在所嵌入产业集群中的知识转移和溢出效应研究"(批准号71073107);国家自然科学基金项目"中国企业在东亚生产网络的嵌入与升级研究"(批准号71373168);国家自然科学基金项目"区域低碳创新网络共生机理与路径仿真:以苏南自主创新示范区为例"(批准号71373169)

摘　　要：集聚经济具有两面性,集聚正(负)外部性在不同的集聚阶段可能交替出现。本文从行业异质性视角入手,引入过度集聚带来的拥挤效应重新考察中国制造业全要素生产率的变化,并采用非线性门限回归模型考察不同类型产业集聚效应的门槛特征并确定最佳的转移时机和区位选择。研究表明:产业集聚对行业生产率的影响并非单调递增(递减),其影响系数在不同行业、不同集聚区间是有所差异的,即随着产业集聚度由弱变强,会对行业生产率产生先提高后降低的影响,且具有显著的三重非线性门槛特征。根据集聚程度与生产率两者的匹配关系给出了集聚推进、集聚适中和集聚过度判断的标准。中国行业生产率与集聚活动呈现空间错配特征,集聚转移的区位选择取决于集聚经济与重新选址的沉没成本之间的权衡比较。本文政策涵义明显:政府应重构产业区域协同发展机制,通过产业链的协同创新机制实施多层次多极的空间战略;产业政策切忌走入盲目提高集聚度或降低集聚度的误区,应针对不同的行业要素特征和发展阶段,采取差异化的集聚政策。Industrial agglomeration has two sides, positive and negative externalities may occur at different stages of agglomeration. From the angle of industry heterogeneity, the paper introduces the crowding effect caused by excessive agglomeration to analyze the change of total factor productivity of manufacturing in China and use nonlinear threshold regression model to study threshold characteristics of different types of industrial agglomeration and determine the optimal level of agglomeration. The results show that the industrial agglomeration＇s effect on productivity is not monotone increasing （decreasing）, the influential coefficient in different industries and interval is different. With the increase of industrial agglomeration, the impact on the industry productivity first increases and then decreases and presents three nonlinear thresholds. According to the given tradeoff between agglomeration degree and productivity, the paper presents the judgment standard of promoting, moderate and excessive agglomeration. Chinese industrial productivity and agglomeration activities present the characteristics of spatial mismatch. Agglomeration choice depends on the relationship between agglomeration economy and sunk cost for relocation. The policy implication is obvious： the government should reconstruct the industrial collaborative mechanisms among regions to implement the multi-spatial strategy through the collaborative innovation mechanism of industrial chain. Government should avoid blindly increasing （decreasing） agglomeration degree and instead establish differentiated agglomeration level in accordance with the realistic characteristics of various industries.

关 键 词：产业集聚 门限回归 拥挤效应 规模效应 

分 类 号：F271[经济管理—企业管理]