技术不确定条件下的科技型中小企业成长机制研究  

Research on SME Growth System under Uncertainty

作　　者：赵驰[1] 汪建[1] 

机构地区：[1]东南大学经济管理学院,江苏南京210096

出　　处：《管理工程学报》2014年第2期108-113,107,共7页Journal of Industrial Engineering and Engineering Management

基　　金：江苏省社会科学基金资助项目(12EYB006)

摘　　要：企业成长本身是一个复杂的社会经济现象,由于实证研究受到观测数据质量的硬约束,本文借助于实物期权模型,加入了带有泊松跳跃的几何布朗运动,从随机涨落和不确定性两个维度研究企业成长的微观机制,为科技型中小企业"短寿命、高死亡率"的悖论提供了新的解释视角。研究结果表明:(1)如果仅考虑企业的技术创新能力,较低的波动率的影响效果接近于正玄曲线,而较高波动率的影响则更接近余玄曲线,企业成长性与时间变迁的关系逐渐呈现从U形到倒U形的变化,而技术创新能力漂移率的变化对科技型中小企业成长路径变迁无显著影响;(2)在技术确定条件下,随着企业的知识资本存量以一定的自然增长率增加或者企业模仿创新能力的提高,企业成长性不断提高;(3)在技术确定条件下,科技型中小企业成长路径决策过程存在正负反馈机制,企业可以通过内部选择机制演化为自稳定成长和自重组成长两种方式。Enterprise growth theory has been adopted by scholars in complexity science and social science fields.The current literature primarily focuses on knowledge,knowledge management and delivery efficiency losses.Enterprise growth has not been well investigated in the current research.In addition,issues regarding the uncertainty of external environment and and the effect ofinternal innovation enterprise growth has not been well addressed in previous studies.This study tries to narrow the research gap by addressing these issues.This paper analyzes the underlying assumptions and paradigms of enterprise evolution theory.The theory is further combined with endogenous theory to help reveal internal growth mechiansms of high-tech enterprises.Enterprise growth is a complex socio-economic phenomenon.This paper investigates the evolution of the optimal path of small-and medium-sized enterprises （SMEs） for dynamic changes in the process of technological innovation according to numerical simulation method.We treat innovative capacity as random variables and change its dynamics enterprise growth path so that the path can be consistent with Poisson jump （Poisson distribution） of geometric Brownian motion.Geometric Brownian motion can represent a time variable which can influence the decision-making process,and describe the gradient part of imitation and innovation.Poisson jump describes random fluctuations leading to uncertainty and catastrophe.This paper provides a new perspective of ＂ short life expectancy and high mortality＂ paradox via random fluctuations and uncertainties.The findings show that low volatility effect is close to the sine curve.In contrst,volatility curve has higher impact on the relationship between firm growth and the time that change gradually from the U-shaped to the inverted U-shaped if only consider the impact of volatility.Forthermore there is no significant effect on drift rate changes of technological innovation for high-tech SMEs.For certain situations,more capital stock and the higher the

关 键 词：科技型中小企业 企业成长 技术不确定 仿真模拟 

分 类 号：F270[经济管理—企业管理]