基于部门结构调整的区域减碳目标情景模拟——以广东省为例  

CO_2 Reduction Target Scenario Simulation Based on the Structural Adjustment of CO_2 Emission Sectors——A Case of Guangdong Province

作　　者：叶玉瑶[1] 苏泳娴[1] 张虹鸥[1] 林丽颖[1] 黄亮雄 

机构地区：[1]广州地理研究所,中国广东广州510070 [2]广东国际战略研究院,中国广东广州510006

出　　处：《经济地理》2014年第4期159-165,共7页Economic Geography

基　　金：广东省软科学研究计划联合项目(2012RL50507007);广东省低碳发展专项基金项目;国家自然科学基金项目(41001385);国家十二五科技支撑项目(2012BAJ15B02)

摘　　要：文章提出了基于部门结构调整的减碳目标模拟新方法并应用于广东省低碳发展实践中。该方法基于能源消耗碳排放的总量与部门结构特征来构建情景分析的基本框架,分别按照惯性发展、相对脱钩、绝对脱钩情景,基准情景、产业"退二进三"、综合调整情景模拟广东省减碳总体目标实现以及部门目标分解的情景。结果表明:国家下达给广东省"十二五"的减碳目标间于惯性发展情景和相对脱钩情景之间,是较为现实的减碳目标,其实现的关键在于提高能源效率;然而,如果没有实质性的结构调整就不可能有能源效率的大的提高,也就无法完成减碳目标;尽管产业结构"退二进三"对于节能减碳作用显著,但要单独依靠"退二进三"来实现减碳目标是不现实的;只有结合三次产业内部行业结构调整(重点是制造业内部行业结构调整)、技术改造、能源结构调整以及生活节能等综合调整手段才能有效地完成减碳目标。实践证明,新方法能够将减碳目标分配到各个部门,有利于减碳目标的分解落实。This paper presents a new method of modeling carbon reduction targets based on sector structural adjustment and applied to a low-carbon development practice in Guangdong Province. Basing on the features of CO2 emissions from energy consumption of total or that of each sector, the basic framework of the scenario analysis is built up. Three scenarios including inertia development scenario, relative decoupling scenario and absolute decoupling scenario, are set to simulate the overall carbon reduction. Another three scenarios including baseline scenario, industry restructuring scenario and comprehensive carbon reduction adjustment scenario, are set to simulate the allocation of the overall carbon reduction goal into each sector. The result shows that the state-assigned carbon reduction target of 2015 of Guangdong is a realistic carbon reduction target between the inertia development scenario and relative decoupling scenario and its realization lies in improving energy efficiency. However, it is impossible to improve energy efficiency to complete the carbon reduction goal unless there is a substantial structural adjustment. Despite industrial restructuring is significant to carbon reduction, it alone is not enough to achieve carbon reduction goal. Only when the industrial restructuring is combined with the synthetic carbon reduction measures such as manufacturing industry structural adjustment, technological innovation, energy restructuring and life energy saving, can the goal be realized.It has proved that the method distribute the target to each sector, thus is conducive to decomposition and realization of the carbon reduction goal.

关 键 词：部门结构调整 碳排放 目标 情景模拟 

分 类 号：X16[环境科学与工程—环境科学]