女子网球运动员竞技能力特征与胜率因子回归分析  

Women's Tennis Athlete Athletics Ability Characteristics and Factor Regression Analysis

作　　者：王凯[1] 李小亚[1] 何江川[2] 杨放[2] 

机构地区：[1]广西民族大学相思湖学院,广西南宁530008 [2]广西民族大学体育与健康科学学院,广西南宁530006

出　　处：《体育研究与教育》2014年第2期102-106,共5页Sports Research and Education

基　　金：广西科学实验中心项目课题(KT201101-35);广西民族大学相思湖学院科研资助项目(2013YJYB14)

摘　　要：统计了网球运动员李娜40场比赛14项参数指标,对女子网球运动员所表现的竞技能力特征与水平进行了分析与研究。主要运用因子分析法提取、分析参数指标的共性因子,解释其含义;在因子分析的基础上,通过逐步回归分析,建立回归模型,并对回归模型的可靠性进行讨论。结果显示:共性因子可为网球运动员比赛战术策略制定、后期针对性训练安排等提供技术支持;建立在共性因子之上的回归方程与观测值之间的拟合程度较高,回归方程可靠,数据模型极具显著意义P(sig=0.000)<0.01,实用性较强,可为网球运动员训练控制和比赛成绩预测提供理论依据。This paper analyzes statistics of Li Na, a tennis player, by which studys on the 14 parameters of 40 games, the characteristics of competitive ability and the level of women tennis player. It mainly uses the factor a nalysis method to extract, analyze the parameters of common factors, and explain its meaning on the basis of factor analysis. Through stepwise regression analysis, it establishes a common factor and the odds of regression mod el. The reliability of the regression model is also discussed. The result shows ： the common factors for tennis play ers late game tactical strategy, targeted training arrangement to provide technical support; based on common fac tor of the regression equation between the observed value and tile high degree of fitting. The regression equation is reliable. The data model is extremely significant P （sig = 0.000） 〈 0.01. Principal component analysis is one of the effective means to solve the problem of multicollinearity. Regression analysis for tennis players training provides the theory basis for control and performance prediction.

关 键 词：网球 竞技能力 胜率 训练控制 回归模型 

分 类 号：G845.2[文化科学—体育训练]