基于圆分布法和时间序列模型的公共自行车需求量分析  

Demand Analysis of Public Bicycle System Based on Circular Distribution Method and Time Series Model

作　　者：徐叶冉子 沈瑾[1] 

机构地区：[1]上海电机学院商学院,上海201316

出　　处：《工业工程》2014年第2期55-63,共9页Industrial Engineering Journal

基　　金：教育部人文社会科学研究青年基金资助项目(13YJC630129);上海高校青年教师培养资助计划(ZZSDJ13003)

摘　　要：为了实现对公共自行车租赁系统需求量的预测,从而能够帮助租赁系统提前做出合理的调度,满足租赁人群出行的需要。提出了基于圆分布法与时间序列模型的定量分析方法。一方面,运用圆分布法分析在潮汐性交通现象下公共自行车租赁需求量的定量特征,从而确定公共自行车租赁的需求高峰时段。另一方面,运用时间序列模型对高峰期的租赁需求量进行分析和预测。通过预测结果与实际值的对比,证实了本文提出的方法的有效性。In order to forecast the demand of a public bicycle system, obtain effective schedule, and satis- fy the public requirement, a method is proposed to analyze the demands of public bicycles by using a cir- cular distribution and time series model. The demand peak for a public bicycle system is first determined by using the method of circular distribution. Then model. The effectiveness of the proposed method and the reality , the demand at the peak is analyzed by using time series is verified by comparison between the predicted demand

关 键 词：公共自行车租赁系统 潮汐性交通 圆分布法 时间序列模型 

分 类 号：F570[经济管理—产业经济]