河西内陆河流域山区近50余年来气温变化的多尺度特征和突变分析  

Multiple Time Scales Analysis of Jump and Variation of Air Temperature in Mountain Area of Hexi Inland River Basin in the Past More than 50 Years

作　　者：蓝永超[1,2] 胡兴林[1,3] 丁宏伟[1] 喇承芳[4] 宋洁[4] 邹松兵[1,2] 尹振良[1,2] 

机构地区：[1]中国科学院内陆河流域生态水文重点实验室甘,甘肃兰州730000 [2]中国科学院寒区旱区环境与工程研究所,甘肃兰州730000 [3]甘肃省水文水资源局,甘肃兰州730000 [4]黄委会黄河上游水文水资源局,甘肃兰州730000

出　　处：《山地学报》2014年第2期163-170,共8页Mountain Research

基　　金：国家自然科学基金重大研究计划项目(91225302)和基金面上项目(41240002;91225301)共同资助~~

摘　　要：基于青藏高原东北部边缘祁连山区及附近有关气象站1960—2011年的气温观测数据,利用线性倾向分析、滑动平均法、Mann-Kendall法等方法,对甘肃河西内陆河流域石羊河、黑河、疏勒河三大水系上游祁连山区气温系列的多尺度变化特征与突变进行了分析。结果表明,近50余年来,该区域气温变化与青藏高原整体的气温变化基本一致,但又有着鲜明的区域差异。具体表现为:三大水系上游山区气温的年代际、年际、各个季节的变化总体上均呈现显著的上升态势,但受区域地理环境的影响,各水系上游山区气温上升的幅度有所不同,气温的气候倾向率总体上呈现出由东向西逐渐增加的趋势。位于祁连山区东部的石羊河上游山区年平均气温突变发生时间在1980年代中期前后,位于祁连山区中、西部的黑河、疏勒河水系上游山区年平均气温发生突变的时间为1990年代后期。但东部的石羊河上游山区气温跳跃幅度较小,中、西部的黑河、疏勒河水系上游山区,尤其是西部的疏勒河水系上游山区气温跳跃幅度较大。2000年代是近50余年来河西内陆河三大水系上游山区最暖的10 a。与年平均气温和其他各季节气温相比,各水系山区冬季(11月至次年2月)气温升幅最大,黑河、疏勒河山区春季气温升幅最小,石羊河山区夏季气温升幅最小。Based on the air temperature observation data of weather stations concerned in the northeast border region of Qinghai-Xizang Plateau during the period from 1960 to 2011,the multiple time scales characteristics of jump and variation of temperature in mountain area of Hexi inland river basin in the past more than 50 years are analyzed by some Trends and mutation analysis methods such as Linear Trend Analysis,Moving Average Analysis,Mann-Kendall Analysis and Spearman rank analysis and so on.The results showed that the change of temperature in the region is basically the same with the integral Qinghai-Tibet Plateau,which is showed that all changes of the decadal and interannual and each seasonal change of temperature in the mountains at the upstream of the Shiyang,Heihe and Shule river systems respectively located the eastern,middle and western Qilian mountain area have presenting an observably rising states as a whole.But the rising extents of temperature in the mountains at the upstream of the various river systems are the different because of the influences of different regional geographical environment and climate tendency rate of the temperature in the in the mountains at the upstream of the various river systems present a gradually increase trend from east to west.The abrupt change of annual mean temperature in the upriver watershed of Shiyang river system located in the eastern Qilian mountain area occur in about the mid 1980 s,which is sooner than the late 1990s,the Jump time of temperature in the upriver watershed of Heihe and Shule river systems located in the middle and western Qilian mountain area.But the Jump extent of annual mean temperature in the upriver watershed of Shiyang river system is less than temperature in the upriver watershed of Heihe and Shule river systems and the Jump extent of annual mean temperature in the upriver watershed of Shiyang river system located in western Qilian mountain area is the largest.The 2000 s is the warmest decade in the upriver mountains of three large river system

关 键 词：青藏高原 河西内陆河流域 祁连山区 三大内陆水系 气候突变 

分 类 号：P467[天文地球—大气科学及气象学] X16[环境科学与工程—环境科学]