输电线路覆冰在线监测动态预警模型  

Icing On-line Monitoring Dynamic Prediction Model

作　　者：朱晔[1] 王海涛[2] 吴念[2] 李牧[2] 许晓路[2] 冯智慧[2] 

机构地区：[1]国电南瑞科技股份有限公司,南京211006 [2]国网电力科学研究院武汉南瑞有限责任公司,武汉430074

出　　处：《高电压技术》2014年第5期1374-1381,共8页High Voltage Engineering

摘　　要：为提高输电线路覆冰预警能力,在全面分析国内外覆冰监测、预警模型的基础上,提出了应用层次分析法(AHP)提炼影响输电线路覆冰的关键风险因子。通过线路现场运行维护数据分析,提出以温度、湿度、风速、风向为关键风险影响因子。根据对关键因子机理及成灾条件分析,构建了输电线路覆冰在线监测实时预警及趋势预警双动态预警模型,并对模型关键技术进行了深入研究分析。线路实际案例研究证明,该预警机制能够实现覆冰的动态实时监测,跟踪线路覆冰变化趋势,反映输电线路现场覆冰所处预警级别,方便用户了解线路覆冰信息,为输电线路覆冰预警提供了良好的基础,能有效提升线路运行维护管理水平。To improve the early icing warning for transmission lines, on the basis of a comprehensive analysis of worldwide ice monitoring and early-warning models, we proposed to refine key risk factors affecting the icing through analysis hierarchy process（AHP）. After analyzing data from on-site operation and maintenance, the key factors are suggested to be temperature, humidity, wind speed, and direction. With further analysis of the mechanism of these key factors and disaster conditions, a dual dynamic prediction model of real-time alert and trend alert for on-line monitoring of transmission line icing is established, and some key technologies of the model are studied in detail. Case studies of practical situation proved that, based on the proposed pre-warning mechanism, it is able to dynamically real-time monitor icing, track the variation tendency of icing, and reflect the pre-warning level of transmission line icing. The results make icing information convenient for user access, lay a good foundation of icing pre-warning, and consequently improve line operation and maintenance management.

关 键 词：输电线路 覆冰 在线监测 层次分析法 风险因子 气象因素 预警模型 

分 类 号：TM752[电气工程—电力系统及自动化]