出生队列规模变动对队列成员教育成就的影响研究  

Impact of Birth Cohort Size on Education Achievement of Cohort Members

作　　者：马妍[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国社会科学院社会学研究所

出　　处：《人口研究》2014年第3期67-80,共14页Population Research

基　　金：国家社科基金青年项目"人口变动对队列成员福利的影响及政策回应研究"(项目编号:12CRK016)的资助

摘　　要：文章运用2005年中国综合社会调查数据,从纵向和队列的角度考察了出生队列规模变动对队列成员教育成就影响的主效应和调节效应。结果表明,出生队列规模对队列成员教育成就存在显著影响,表现为规模较大队列成员的教育成就低于规模较小队列。这种影响也受到性别和城乡差异因素的调节,表现为出生队列规模对队列成员中男性和女性、非农业和农业成员的教育成就存在不同程度的影响。此外,通过模拟分析发现了出生队列规模对队列成员教育成就存在拉高或拉低效应。最后指出出生队列规模变动效应的存在是宏观上人口再生产节律与教育承载力变动不匹配的结果,应当准确把握社会政策回应和调整的机会窗口。Using data from China General Social Survey 2005, this paper explores the main and moderating effects of birth cohort size on education achievement of cohort members, from longitudinal and cohort perspectives. Results show that birth cohort size has significant impacts on education a- chievement of cohort members, and cohort members in larger cohort size have lower education a- chievement. However, the impacts of cohort size differ between males and females, and between ur- ban and rural areas. These are the consequences of the discordant change between population repro- duction and education capacily, as suggested by simulation decomposition in this paper of the net effect of birth cohort size. Therefore, it＇ s important to correctly seize the window of opportunily of policy response and adiustment.

关 键 词：出生队列 队列规模变动 教育成就 

分 类 号：C92-05[社会学—人口学]