胶济客运专线年度客运量预测研究  

Study on Forecast of Annual Passenger Transport Volume of Qingdao-Ji'nan DPL

作　　者：崔艳萍[1] 于潇[2] 

机构地区：[1]中国铁道科学研究院运输及经济研究所,北京100081 [2]中国铁道科学研究院通信信号研究所,北京100081

出　　处：《铁道运输与经济》2014年第5期44-48,共5页Railway Transport and Economy

基　　金：中国铁路总公司科技研究开发计划课题(2013X004-A-1)

摘　　要：在分析胶济客运专线的客流特点、能力适应性及扩能改造的基础上,根据胶济客运专线动车组列车和普速旅客列车混行的运输组织模式,结合其在高速铁路网络中的地位和作用,通过趋势客流、诱增客流和转移客流进行运量预测,得出2014、2015年胶济客运专线动车组列车客运量预测结果,并提出列车开行方案建议,为列车开行方案的编制和线路经济效益评价提供研究基础。Based on analyzing the passenger flow characteristics, capacity adaptability and capacity expansion reconstruction of Qingdao-Ji＇nan DPL, according to the transport organization mode of mixed operation of EMU trains and common-speed passenger trains on Qingdao-Ji＇nan DPL, and combining with the role and action of the DPL in high-speed railway network, this paper takes transport volume forecast through trend passenger flow, induced passenger flow and transfer passenger flow, then achieves the forecast result of passenger transport volume of the DPL EMU trains in 2014 and 2015, finally, the paper puts forward suggestions on train operation plan, all of these provide research foundation on drawing of train operation plan and the economic benefit evaluation of the line.

关 键 词：胶济客运专线 客运量预测 趋势客流 诱增客流 转移客流 

分 类 号：U293.13[交通运输工程—交通运输规划与管理]