月动力延伸预报产品在三峡工程建设服务中的应用  

Application of Products of Monthly Dynamic Extended Forecast to Three Gorges Engineering

作　　者：陈丽娟[1] 李维京[1] 

机构地区：[1]国家气候中心,北京100081

出　　处：《气象》2001年第3期23-25,共3页Meteorological Monthly

基　　金：国家气象局气象科技"短平快"课题! 0 2 - 0 2子专题的资助

摘　　要：用 3种客观评分方法对国家气候中心为三峡库区提供的月动力延伸预报产品(5 0 0 h Pa位势高度场 )进行了全面评估。结果表明 ,延伸预报月平均环流场预报准确率明显高于持续性预报和气候预报 ,有一定的预报技巧 ,对三峡工程气象服务有参考价值。从动力与统计相结合的角度出发 ,利用推导的月降水距平与月环流场的关系 ,建立了三峡库区代表站点月降水距平预报方程 ,利用月动力延伸预报的 5 0 0 h Pa高度场和实际降水场资料反演出月降水距平预报方程的系数。经过 1999年降水预报试验 ,证明效果较好。Products of monthly dynamic extended range forecast (DERF) on Three Gorges Engineering were evaluated by using three score methods.The skills of monthly DERF is generally better than that of persistence and climate forecast.The products of DERF can be used as a reference in the serve of Three Gorges Engineering.Furthermore,a blending method of dynamical and statistical approaches was presented,which has established a relationship between monthly precipitation anomaly and monthly circulation.The relationship between monthly precipitation forecast equation and its coefficients was determined by using 500hPa potential height anomaly of ensemble dynamical extended range forecast (DERF) and observed precipitation.The results show that the method is useful in forecasting monthly rainfall anomaly using potential height of ensemble DERF through precipitation forecast tests in 1999.

关 键 词：延伸预报 三峡工程 降水预报 环流场 月气候预测 动力数值模式 

分 类 号：P457.6[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]