大型灌区农田有效灌溉面积发展趋势分析及预测  

An Analysis and Forecast of Development Trend of the Farmland Effective Irrigated Area of the Large-sized Irrigation District

作　　者：王迪[1] 杨路华[1] 姚宛艳[2] 徐海洋[2] 

机构地区：[1]河北农业大学,河北保定071001 [2]中国灌溉排水发展中心,北京100054

出　　处：《中国农村水利水电》2014年第5期64-67,共4页China Rural Water and Hydropower

基　　金：河北省自然科学基金项目(E2011204108);水利部公益性行业科研专项经费项目(201001037)

摘　　要：大型灌区农田有效灌溉面积是保障我国粮食安全的重要基础条件.对1978-2011年大型灌区农田有效灌溉面积发展趋势进行了分析.采用融合Markov链的GM（1,1）模型对大型灌区2013-2020年农田有效灌溉面积进行了预测.结果表明,未来大型灌区农田有效灌溉面积将持续增长,到2020年将达到1 879.5～1 892.2万hm2,融合Markov链的GM（1,1）模型对大型灌区农田有效灌溉面积的预测具有较好的精度及适用性.The farmland effective irrigated area of large-sized irrigation district is an important basic condition for food security. The development trend of farmland effective irrigated area of large-sized irrigation district from 1978 to 2011 was analyzed in this paper. The GM （1,1） model based on the Markov chain was applied to forecast farmland effective irrigated area of large-sized irrigation dis- trict. The results showed that the farmland effective irrigated area of large-sized irrigation district would continue to grow in the fu- ture, and reached 18.8×10% 418. 9 × 106 hm2 until 2020. The forecast of model for farmland effective irrigated area of large-sized ir rigation district had good precision and applicability.

关 键 词：大型灌区 农田有效灌溉面积 预测 GM(1 1) MARKOV链 

分 类 号：S274.2[农业科学—农业水土工程]