基于分层线性模型的武汉城市圈农地城市流转经济驱动机制研究  

Land Conversion Driving Forces Based on Hierarchical Linear Models: A Case Study in Wuhan Metropolitan Area

作　　者：钟海玥[1] 张安录[1] 

机构地区：[1]华中农业大学公共管理学院,中国湖北武汉430070

出　　处：《经济地理》2014年第5期76-82,共7页Economic Geography

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(713733095;71341040);湖北省国土资源科技发展计划项目(GTZYKJ2013A01);湖北省高校优秀中青年科技创新团队(T201012)

摘　　要：基于分层线性模型技术构建了多空间尺度农地城市流转经济驱动机制模型,以揭示不同空间尺度因子对武汉城市圈农地城市流转的驱动力。结果显示:①农地城市流转规模差异有61.99%是各县域本身的差异造成的,有38.01%是其所在市的差异造成的;②GDP和城镇土地比较收益对农地城市流转具有正向驱动作用,而农地投入和距武汉市中心的距离则具有负向驱动作用;③市域GDP会强化县域GDP与农地城市流转的正向关联,但会弱化县域城镇土地比较收益与农地城市流转的正向关联,市域粮食自给率会弱化县域农用地地均投入与农地城市流转的负向关联;④市域层次变量的引入解释了88.77%的县域农地城市流转平均规模差异,75.47%的县域城镇用地比较收益与农地城市流转关系,78.67%的县域农用地地均投入与农地城市流转关系,75.03%的各县(市、区)距武汉市中心距离与农地城市流转关系。Land conversion is not only affected by factors at the local level but also at the regional level, and these factors interact with each other, revealing the interaction between local and regional factors is very important to analyze the driving forces of land conversion. To reveal the impact of factors at two different levels and to clarify the mechanism of land conversion, hierarchical linear modeling technique is introduced. In this paper, Wuhan metropolitan area was chosen as the empirical study area, counties in the area were treated as the basic unit of level- 1 （local level）, and municipalities were treated as the basic unit of level-2 （regional level）. The result shows that, （1） 61.99% of differences in land conversion in counties was attributed to the differences at the county level, the other 38.01% dues to the differences at the city level. （2） GDP and the ratio of urban to rural land profit have positive effect on land conversion from rural to urban land, while invest on agricultural land and distance to center of Wuhan city have negative effect on this conversion. （3） Municipal GDP has enhanced the positive correlation between GDP in county and land conversion, while weakened the positive correlation between urban land comparative return and land conversion; in addition, self-sufficient rate in cities has lowered the negative correlation between average investment in farmland in counties and land conversion; moreover, municipal GDP has increased the negative correlation between distance from county to the provincial capital and land conversion, whereas self-sufficient rate in cities has decreased the negative correlation between them. （4） Municipal GDP, urban average salary arid self- sufficient rate have explained 88.77% of the differences of land conversion level in counties; self-sufficient rate have explained 78.67% of the correlation between average investment in farmland in counties and land conversion; municipal GDP and self-sufficient rate have explained 75.03% of the c

关 键 词：农地城市流转 经济驱动机制 分层线性模型 武汉城市圈 

分 类 号：F301.2[经济管理—产业经济]