国有经济比重与中国经济增长波动的关系研究——基于1980—2012年统计数据的分析  

On the Relationship between the Proportion of State-owned Economy and China's Economic Growth Fluctuations:Based on the Statistical Analysis of the Data of 1980-2012

作　　者：程承坪[1] 程鹏[1] 

机构地区：[1]武汉大学经济与管理学院,湖北武汉430072

出　　处：《湘潭大学学报（哲学社会科学版）》2014年第3期25-32,共8页Journal of Xiangtan University:Philosophy And Social Sciences

基　　金：国家社会科学基金项目"中国经济发展道路的独特竞争优势研究"(项目编号:12BJL009)

摘　　要：近几年中国经济增长出现了较大程度的波动,引起了人们的担忧,导致这一结果的原因需要认真研究。为此,利用1980—2012年的统计数据,通过建立向量自回归及其误差修正模型,研究了国有经济比重与中国经济增长波动之间的关系。研究发现,在控制了其他影响因素的情况下,随着国有经济比重的下降,中国经济增长的波动幅度不断加大。因此,欲促进中国经济平稳增长,必须遏制国有经济比重不断下降的态势。In the recent years, some fluctuation appears in the process of economic growth, which makes people worry, and needs to be researched seriously. Therefore, in this paper, based on statistical data from 1980 to 2012, a VAR model and VEC model are estab- lished for the relations between the proportion of China state - owned economy and the fluctuation of economic growth rate. Empirical results show that： by controlling other factors, with the decline in the proportion of state - owned economy, the fluctuations of China＇ s economic growth rate continue to increase. Thence, in order to promote the sustainable development of China economy, the declining trend in the proportion of state - owned economy must be held.

关 键 词：国有经济比重 经济增长率波动 人均GDP波动 

分 类 号：F276.1[经济管理—企业管理]