双层多源主观证据融合决策方法  

Subjective Evidence Fusion Decision Method of Double-layer Multiple Sources

作　　者：杜元伟[1] 杨娜[1] 石方园 

机构地区：[1]昆明理工大学管理与经济学院,昆明650093

出　　处：《计算机工程》2014年第5期209-215,共7页Computer Engineering

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(71261011);中国博士后科学基金资助面上项目(20110491760);云南省应用基础研究计划基金资助项目(2011FZ021;2013FB030);云南省教育厅基金资助重点项目(2012Z103)

摘　　要：在层次结构显著、决策执行过程具有次序性的层次性决策中,为解决由决策主体给出的主观证据之间同时存在独立与相关2种关系的融合决策问题,结合该类决策的特征,提出一种能够规避管理者主观证据多次重复合成的融合决策方法,并通过去合成规则将相对简单的2个相关证据合成规则,拓展为更具普适性的多源相关证据融合规则,在此基础上按照由上至下、由内至外的次序,应用给出的相关证据融合规则和Dempster组合规则,构建适用于双层多源主观证据融合决策的方法步骤,并描述层次权重在决策过程中的目标导向作用。应用不同方法对同一决策问题进行数值模拟求解,分析结果表明,该方法与传统方法相比,更具科学有效性。In order to solve the hierarchical fused decision problem of remarkable hierarchical structure and ordered decision implementation that independent and interrelated relationships co-exist in subjective evidences given by decision makers, the fusion mechanism is proposed combined with characteristics of hierarchical decision making to wipe out the influence of supervisors’ subjective evidence being repeatedly synthesized and the fusion rule adapted to only two interrelated evidences is expanded for more interrelated evidences according to the rule of de-synthesizing. After that, decision making steps for double-layer subjective fusion decision with multiple sources are constructed by the suggested integration rule for fusing interrelated evidences and the traditional Dempster combination rule following sequences of“up to down”and“inner to outer”, in which hierarchical weights are reflected. A decision problem is resolved by three methods, and the data comparison analysis shows the proposed method is scientific and efficient finally.

关 键 词：双层决策 融合决策 DEMPSTER-SHAFER理论 主观证据 DEMPSTER组合规则 

分 类 号：TP18[自动化与计算机技术—控制理论与控制工程]