昆明市区域商品住宅价格及影响因素研究  

The Commercial Housing Price and Its Impact Factors in the Region of Kunming City

作　　者：孙玉梅[1] 武立广[1] 

机构地区：[1]昆明理工大学建筑工程学院,昆明650500

出　　处：《河南科学》2014年第5期882-887,共6页Henan Science

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(70973047);云南省自然科学基金项目(2008ZC029M)

摘　　要：结合历史房价数据及人均生产总值等因素,以昆明市作为研究对象,通过建立GM(1,N)模型对昆明市的商品住宅房价进行了预测,采用理论与实证相结合的方法进行研究,并检验了模型的精度,试图弥补房价与影响其变化的多个经济变量之间的定量关系无法用精确的数学表达式来描述的不足,以期为昆明市的房地产投资决策提供一定的指导和借鉴意义.Combined the historical price data with the per capita GDP and other factors, taking Kunming City as the research object, this paper aims at forecasting the real estate price of Kunming through the establishment of GM （ 1, N） model. Using the method of combining theory and empirical research and testing the precision of the model, the authors tried to make up for the short that it can＇ t use accurate mathematical expression to describe the quantitative relationship between the house price and multiple economic variables, and then to provide some guidance and reference for the decision-making of the real estate investment in Kunming.

关 键 词：商品住宅价格 预测 GM(1 N)模型 昆明市 

分 类 号：F293.35[经济管理—国民经济]