土地供应、住房价格与居民消费——基于面板联立方程模型的研究  

Land Supply,Housing Price and Household Consumption:An Estimation Based on the Panel Data Simultaneous Equations Model

作　　者：李勇刚[1,2] 高波[1] 张鹏[1] 

机构地区：[1]南京大学经济学院,江苏南京210093 [2]安徽财经大学经济学院,安徽蚌埠233030

出　　处：《南京农业大学学报（社会科学版）》2013年第3期54-63,共10页Journal of Nanjing Agricultural University(Social Sciences Edition)

基　　金：教育部哲学社会科学研究重大课题攻关项目(10JZD0025);国家社会科学基金重点项目(08AJY010);国家社会科学基金一般项目(10BJY094);国家社会科学基金青年项目(12CJL071);安徽高校省级人文社会科学研究一般项目(SK2013B017)

摘　　要：正确理清土地供应与住房价格的关系,探知其对居民消费的影响,是合理运用土地政策以实现我国扩大内需战略的重要问题。利用1999—2010年我国31个省市区的面板数据,构建面板联立方程模型,研究土地供应、房价与居民消费的关系。结果发现,土地供应与房价之间存在负向的互动关系,土地供应增加会抑制居民消费的增加,而房价对居民消费的影响显著为正,即存在正向的房地产财富效应。进一步研究发现,房地产财富效应存在显著的空间差异和时序差异,东部地区财富效应大于中西部地区;随着社会经济的发展和房价的快速上涨,2004年以后的房地产财富效应远大于1999—2003年间的财富效应。此外,受传统消费习惯的影响,我国居民消费行为存在"棘轮效应"。The rational use of the land policy to expand domestic demand must be preceded by clarifying correctly the relationship between land supply and housing prices,and finding out the impact of household′s consumption.By using the panel data from 31 Chinese provinces during 1999-2010,and constructing the panel simultaneous equations model,this paper investigated the relationship between land supply,housing prices and household′s consumption.The results showed that there is a negative interaction between the land supply and housing prices,the land supply increasing will hold up the household′s consumption,and housing prices increasing has a significantly influence on the household′s consumption,in other words,there is a positive wealth effect of the real estate market.By further studying,we found that the real estate wealth effect displays a significant difference between space and time with the eastern region wealth effect greater than that of the midwest.With the social economy developing and housing prices rising rapidly,the real estate wealth effect in the ensuing years after 2004 was greater than that of 1999—2003.In addition,affected by the traditional consumption habits,household′s consumption of our country shows a 'ratchet effect'.

关 键 词：土地供应 住房价格 居民消费 面板联立方程模型 

分 类 号：F293.3[经济管理—国民经济]