我国住房公积金贷款对房价影响的动态研究——基于2002—2011年七个二线城市的面板数据  

The Dynamic Influence of China's Housing Provident Fund Loans on the Housing Price:Based on the Panel Data of Seven Second-tier Cities from 2002 to 2011

作　　者：杨黎明[1] 余劲[1] 

机构地区：[1]西北农林科技大学经济管理学院,陕西杨凌712100

出　　处：《南京农业大学学报（社会科学版）》2013年第5期76-83,共8页Journal of Nanjing Agricultural University(Social Sciences Edition)

基　　金：教育部人文社科研究项目(10XJA790010)

摘　　要：基于2002—2011年天津、杭州、武汉、西安、重庆、成都、南京七个二线城市的面板数据,运用状态空间模型实证分析了住房公积金贷款对二线城市房价的短期动态影响。研究结果表明:住房公积金贷款对二线城市房价具有正向推动作用,且短期内,住房公积金对房价影响波动较大,主要受公积金政策影响;同时,对区域内各城市的房价影响也存在差异,这与各城市的经济环境、公积金贷款政策、居民生活水平有关。因此,政府部门应该微调目前的公积金贷款政策,继续差别化信贷政策,以最大限度发挥公积金政策保障刚性需求的积极作用,抑制其不利影响。Based on the panel data of seven second - tier cities,namely,Tianjin,Hangzhou,Wuhan,Xi＇an,Chongqing,Chengdu and Nanjing from 2002 to 2011,and using the state-space model empirical analysis,theshort-term dynamic effects that the housing provident fund loans had on the housing prices of second-tier citieswas empirically studied. The results showed that housing provident fund loans have a positive role in promoting the housing prices of second-tier cities. In a short term,the impacts on housing prices have fluctuations,mainlydue to the impact of provident fund policies. At the same time,there are also different impacts on the regional cit-y＇s housing prices,which is related to the city＇s economic environment,the fund loan policies and the livingstandards. Therefore,the government should minutely adjust the current fund loan policies and continue to imple-ment differentiated credit policies,in order to maximize its positive role,protect the rigid demand,and inhibit theiradverse effects.

关 键 词：住房公积金贷款 房价 状态空间模型 卡尔曼滤波 

分 类 号：F293.3[经济管理—国民经济]