碳排放约束下的天津市能源区域分配研究——基于碳夹点模型分析  

Study on regional energy allocation under carbon emission constrained in Tianjin:based on analysis of carbon pinch

作　　者：余鸿[1] 王军锋[1] 胡雷[1] 

机构地区：[1]南开大学环境科学与工程学院,天津300071

出　　处：《环境污染与防治》2014年第6期90-95,共6页Environmental Pollution & Control

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(No.71003056;No.71373134);天津市循环经济与低碳发展人文社科研究基地开放课题资助项目(No.A2011033)

摘　　要：能源的供需及碳排放约束是中国各省市在经济快速发展过程中必须考虑的问题。在能源供需和碳排放约束下,对区域的能源利用进行合理分配具有实际意义。利用碳夹点分析方法,对天津市的能源分配问题进行研究,建立分析模型,在考虑整体和区域的能源需求和碳排放约束条件下,分别确定各种化石能源和清洁能源的使用量,以实现最优的能源结构和能源供需平衡,为地方政府制定合理的能源供应量和碳排放约束指标提供科学依据。研究表明,若只考虑天津市总体的碳排放约束(1 570.6×105 t)和能源需求(223.0×1013 kJ),需要减少24.9×1013 kJ的煤能源使用,同时增加31.7×1013 kJ的清洁能源;若天津市能提供50.0×1013 kJ的清洁能源,在达到能源总需求的同时,总的碳排放为1 378.5×105 t,因此能源部门在规划天津市的总体碳排放约束时不应低于此值;考虑各个区域的碳排放约束的条件下,规划得到的排放总量为1 434.1×105 t,能够满足当前的碳排放限值。Energy supply and demand, and carbon emission constrained is the problem must be taken into consideration in the rapid economic development of our country and each province. Under the constraints of energy supply, energy demand and carbon emissions, there has practical significance to allocate regional energy utilization. Base on the carbon pinch method,this paper research the energy allocation of Tianjin and set the analysis model. Considering the overall and regional energy demand and carbon emission constraints, this paper calculated the usage amount of different fossil energy and clean energy, so as to achieve the best energy structure and balance the energy supply and energy demand. The conclusions would provide scientific evidence for local government to make reasonable energy supply and carbon emission constraint index. Results showed that 31.7×10^13 kJ of clean energy is needed when considering the overall carbon emission constraint （1 570.6×10^5t） and energy demand （223.0×10^13 kJ） in Tianjin,at the same time 24.9×10^13 kJ of coal consumption was reduced. When 50.0 ×10^13 kJ of clean energy can be provide, the total carbon emission of Tianjin could decline to 1 378.5 ×10^5 t while satisfying the total energy demand. Considering the regional carbon emission constraint,the planning total emission is 1 434.1 ×10^5 t,which could meet the current carbon emission constraint.

关 键 词：碳排放 碳夹点 能源需求 能源供给 

分 类 号：X24[环境科学与工程—环境科学] F127[经济管理—世界经济]