基于多情景的景区自然灾害风险评价方法研究——以九寨沟树正寨为例  

Research on the Natural Disaster Risk Assessment in Tourist Area Based on Multi-scenarios Technique:A Case in Shuzheng Village of Jiuzhai Valley

作　　者：叶欣梁[1] 温家洪[2] 邓贵平[3] 

机构地区：[1]上海工程技术大学管理学院,上海201620 [2]上海师范大学旅游学院,上海200234 [3]九寨沟风景名胜区管理局,四川九寨沟623402

出　　处：《旅游学刊》2014年第7期47-57,共11页Tourism Tribune

基　　金：教育部人文社会科学研究基金(13YJC630207);上海市教委科研创新项目(14YS116);国家国际科技合作专项(2013DFR90670)资助~~

摘　　要：文章采用参与式地理信息系统(PGIS)技术,模拟景区未来典型自然灾害风险情景,建立典型致灾因子强度与灾害风险情景对应关系;对旅游资源、旅游设施进行分类,分析游客居民景区内时空分布特征,建立致灾因子强度与景区承载体的脆弱性对应关系;最后通过拟合风险曲线,建立景区综合灾损模型并预测出多情景年均损失。综合景区利益相关方可接受风险,基于灾损和防灾成本进行风险决策。案例研究以九寨沟树正景群为例,模拟九寨沟在分别遭遇20、50、100、200、500、1000年一遇6种暴雨情景下引发泥石流的流速、流量和冲击力,建立6种情景泥石流与树正景群脆弱性关系;预测6种情景潜在损失和人员伤亡;结合可接受风险,提出九寨沟树正寨未来自然灾害防灾降险措施。Natural disasters in tourist areas show a trend of rapid increase in recent years and have caused great losses. It has become a main bottleneck restricting the sustainable development of tourism in more than 60% of the tourist areas in China, and has aroused great attention of governments and scientists. This research puts forward the natural disaster risk assessment method in tourist area by the introduction and development of the concept of scenario analysis technique. The method using Participatory Geographic Information System （PGIS） technology, first designs multi-scenarios of hazards in tourist areas, and establishes the curve of relationship between hazard intensity and risk scenarios. Secondly, it establishes the curve of relationship between hazard intensity and vulnerability by making a classification of the exposure including tourism resources and tourist facilities according to the structure in the serving years. Finally, it establishes the comprehensive disaster loss model and calculates the average annual losses in the tourist area by fitting the risk curve. The case takes the example of Jiuzhai Valley （Shuzheng Scenic Spots）, a World Natural Heritage site. The research calculates the speed, quantity and impact force of debris flows under 6 kinds of storm scenarios, namely, in 20-year, 50-year, 100-year,200-year,500-year and 1,000-year return periods. Then by using Participatory GIS to make survey of tourists and residents in Shuzheng Vallage, it classifies the structure and serving years of different buildings and tourism resource facilities, and sets up vulnerability curves between debris flow and the two Spots under 6 different scenarios; learning the property and building conditions of each household and calculating potential losses that the 6 scenarios may respectively cause to the two villages. Ultimately, carrying out overall analysis of disaster prevention costs and benefits targeted at the acceptable risks and raising measures for natural disaster prevention in Jiuzhai Valley.

关 键 词：自然灾害 风险评价 多情景 九寨沟 泥石流 

分 类 号：X43[环境科学与工程—灾害防治]