基于GIS和RS的赣江上游流域土地利用动态趋势分析  

Dynamic trend analysis of land use change in the ganjiang upstream watershed by using RS and GIS techniques

作　　者：鲁燕飞[1,2,3] 彭芳[2] 万韵[2] 曾凡兴[2] 陈美球[3] 罗志军[3] 黄宏胜[3] 

机构地区：[1]江西农业大学园林与艺术学院,南昌330045 [2]江西农业大学计算机与信息工程学院,南昌330045 [3]江西农业大学鄱阳湖流域农业生态重点实验室,南昌330045

出　　处：《生态学报》2014年第12期3224-3233,共10页Acta Ecologica Sinica

基　　金：国家自科基金资助项目(71163022);江西省"赣鄱英才555工程"项目

摘　　要：利用赣江上游流域1990、1995、2000、2005和2010年5期的TM影像以及2010年的SPOT影像资料,通过目视解译方法及GIS软件的空间叠加分析功能,获取了研究区土地利用覆被变化数据。在此基础上,结合1990—2010年赣江上游流域的统计资料利用灰色关联分析和主成分分析法进行分析,找出引起土地利用变化的主导因素。结果表明:研究区20年来林地和建设用地总量增加,耕地、草地、水域和未利用地总量减少。相同时期不同类型的土地利用变化的驱动因子不相同,不同时期同一类型土地利用变化的驱动因子也不相同。再利用GM(1,1)灰色预测模型预测了2015—2030年间研究区驱动因素和土地利用情况,研究表明主导因素对土地利用变化的影响与1990—2010年间变化趋势一致。Land use change has become a hot issue on the global climate change research,which includes two aspects： one is the study of land use change process,and the second is the driving factors of land use change. Ganjiang is the greatest river of the Poyang Lake watershed,of which the watershed area accounted for 51. 5% of Poyang Lake basin. Ganjiang plays a vital role in the development of social economy of Jiangxi Province. As an important area for water conservation,ecological protection and restoration of Jiangxi Province,the ecological and environmental conditions of Ganjiang upstream are the foundation that the Ganjiang watershed ecosystem depends on existence and development. It is also the premise for ensuring the ecosystem health of the whole Poyang Lake watershed. This study used the TM images of Ganjiang upstream watershed of the year 1990,1995,2000,2005 and 2010 as well as the SPOT image data of 2010,by visual interpretation method and GIS software space,obtaining the land use cover change data of the study area. On this basis,the authors used the methods of grey relational analysis and principal component analysis to analyze the statistics of the Ganjiang upstream watershed between 1990 and 2010,and found the drivers of land use change. Then GM（ 1,1） gray prediction model was used to predicate the driving factors and land use change of the study area between 2015 to 2030. The results are asfollows. First,from the point of view of single land use dynamic degree,the land use degree of Ganjiang upstream watershed was on the rise from 1990 to 2010. Of the six kinds land-use types,from 1990 to 1995,construction land has the highest single land use dynamic degree,followed by water,woodland has the minimum value. From 1995 to 2000,unused land has the highest single land use dynamic degree,followed by water,woodland has the minimum value. From 2000 to2010,construction land has the highest single land use dynamic degree,followed by grassland,woodland has the minimum value. From the point of view of comprehens

关 键 词：RS GIS 土地利用变化 主成份分析 GM(1 1)模型 

分 类 号：P208[天文地球—地图制图学与地理信息工程] P237[天文地球—测绘科学与技术] F301[经济管理—产业经济]