新疆入境旅游市场波动周期及结构演化分析  

Fluctuation Cycle and Structure Evolution of Inbound Tourism Market in Xinjiang

作　　者：王晶[1] 杨宝仁[2] 何超[1] 

机构地区：[1]塔里木大学经济与管理学院,新疆阿拉尔843300 [2]塔里木大学党委宣传部,新疆阿拉尔843300

出　　处：《塔里木大学学报》2014年第2期64-73,共10页Journal of Tarim University

基　　金：国家科技支撑计划项目(2013GX09E04)

摘　　要：入境旅游是旅游业＂三大市场＂中开发最早、发展最快的市场,入境旅游人数和旅游外汇收入不仅是衡量一个国家或地区经济实力和区域开放程度的指标,也是研究入境旅游发展态势的重要指数。从宏观与微观两个层面研究新疆入境旅游的发展演变情况,一方面,旅游业作为一个经济产业,其发展过程存在周期性波动,运用PASW Statistics18软件对1993～2012年数据进行宏观层面的相关性和形态学分析;另一方面,在波幅最大的周期中选取2003、2011年截面数据,运用SSM分析法对新疆22个主要客源地市场结构进行微观层面分析。结果显示：（1）入境旅游人数与旅游外汇收入线性关系显著且波动周期基本一致,数据拟合为5个短周期,主要指标呈现增长趋势明显,但受复杂外在环境影响,一度出现超常波动增长的状况;（2）新疆入境旅游客源市场整体发展速度呈逐年上升趋势。独联体、日本、港澳、美国、法国、英国等市场较为稳定,台湾地区、蒙古、巴基斯坦、新加坡、马来西亚、韩国、加拿大等市场上升趋势明显,而德国、意大利、澳大利亚、菲律宾等市场开始弱化,印度、印尼、泰国、瑞典、瑞士、新西兰等新兴市场发展迅速。Inbound tourism is one of the ＂ Three market＂,which has fastest and earliest development. The number of inbound tourists and tourism foreign exchange income are important indicators of a country and regional economic strength and openness,which is also an important index in studying the development situation of inbound tourism. In this paper,the evolution of inbound tourism is studied from the macro and micro aspects. On the one hand,the development practice of modern economy shows that economic growth accompanied by fluctuation. As a part of economic industry,whose development has a cyclical fluctuation feature. By using the PASW Statistics18,This paper made a macroscopic correlation and morphological analysis of tourism period of fluctuations in Xinjiang from 1993 to2012. One the other hand,the cross-section datum in 2003 and 2011 were selected from all of the cycle,which had largest amplitude,micro-level analysis of 15 major tourist source market structure were studied by Shift-share Method. The results showed that ：（1） the number of inbound tourists and tourism foreign exchange income has a significant linear relationship and concordant of fluctuation cycle to each other. The datum can be fitted for five short cycles. The result showed that there is an obvious tendency of increasing in main index,but the fluctuation growth affected by complex external environment.（ 2） The overall growth rate of inbound tourism market showed an increasing trend year after year. Mature market includes CIS,Japan,Hong Kong,Macao,USA,France and Britain,which are relatively stable; growth market includes Taiwan,Mongolia,Pakistan,Singapore,Malaysia,South Korea and Canada,which are on the rising; Germany,Italy,Australia and Philippine are trending downward,which belong to stagnation market; as emerging markets,India,Indonesia,Thailand,Sweden,Switzerland and New Zealand are developing rapidly.

关 键 词：入境旅游市场 波动周期 线性回归模型 偏离-份额分析法(SSM) 新疆 

分 类 号：F592.7[经济管理—旅游管理]