货币政策的预期冲击与产业经济转型效应分析--基于跨产业DSGE模型的视角  

An Analysis on Anticipated Shocks of Monetary Policy and Industrial Transmission:Based on a Multi-sectoral DSGE Model

作　　者：张伟[1] 郑婕[1] 黄炎龙[2] 

机构地区：[1]济南大学经济研究中心,山东济南250022 [2]同济大学经济管理学院,上海200092

出　　处：《金融研究》2014年第6期33-49,共17页Journal of Financial Research

摘　　要：财政政策和货币政策是调节产业经济的政策工具,但"李嘉图定理"预示了货币政策在这一过程中起着重要作用,这是由于庇古效应的存在,货币政策的预期机制会改变产业经济的波动路径,进而作用于总体经济的波动,产业结构的转型升级在这一过程中便具有不确定性。本文通过建立跨产业DSGE模型,研究货币政策的预期机制与产业结构变化之间的关系,结果表明:技术冲击是产业转型的动因,但由于庇古效应的存在,技术冲击的显著性会逐步减弱,政策效应会随之增强,这种情形在传统产业表现较为明显;货币政策的冲击会改变产业经济变动轨迹,进而导致总体经济发生波动,预期效应机制促使产业向适应于政策预期的方向发展;货币政策短期内影响资本密集型产业,长期则会影响到传统产业。因此,保持货币政策的审慎性、持续性和一致性,是促进产业经济向更高级化方向发展的关键。Adjustment of industrial structure requires the guidance of macro policies, the expected mechanism of monetary policy to promote industrial restructuring of the economy, due to the existence of the expected mechanism. The Pigou effect of monetary policy will affect the industrial transformation. This paper develops a multisectoral DSGE model of monetary policy and studies the relationship between industrial economic volatility and the whole economic volatility. Studies have shown that： the technical impact of the economic growth momentum, but the inter -industry model, the technical impact of the siguificantly by the weakening of; Monetary Policy Shocks in the expected and no expected impact of the degree of difference between not significant, but in cross - industry model in Pigou effect the performance of monetary policy shocks, the Pigou effect of the presence of cross - industry transformation there are policy opportunities. Meanwhile, the expected industrial re- structuring, the expected mechanism of monetary policy management conducive to industrial transformation and the realization of monetary policy should ensure that the policy is open and transparent, to take full advantage of the policy passed in the role of the Pigou effect, to realize industrialization and balanced development, promoting industrial transformation upgrade.

关 键 词：货币政策 预期冲击 跨产业DSGE模型 产业转型 

分 类 号：F822.0[经济管理—财政学] F121.3