一种改进我国汛期降水预测的新思路  

A New Idea to Improve China Summer Precipitation Forecasting

作　　者：董文杰[1] 韦志刚[2] 丑纪范[3] 

机构地区：[1]中国科学院大气物理研究所,北京100029 [2]中国科学院寒区旱区环境与工程研究所,甘肃兰州730000 [3]北京气象学院,北京100081

出　　处：《高原气象》2001年第1期36-40,共5页Plateau Meteorology

基　　金：国家重点基础研究发展规划项目!(G19980 40 90 4-2 );国家自然科学基金项目!(4980 5 0 0 6 )资助

摘　　要：1998年 1月赤道东太平洋海温为正异常、1月黑潮—西风漂流区海温为负异常、青藏高原冬春积雪为正异常。通过对 1998年汛期降水的预测实践分析研究指出 ,当此三因子同时异常时 ,利用其中任何一个单因子都难以较好地同时预测出 1998年发生在我国长江中下游和东北嫩江流域的多雨区和华北平原的少雨区。而通过EOF分解和动力模式对三因子异常进行综合集成所作的预测与实况基本一致。对多因子异常的综合集成是改进和提高汛期降水预测水平的有效手段 ,沿着这一新思路 ,利用EOF筛选出前期明显异常的重要因子 ,选择一个较好的区域气候模式 。At present, the dynamic model method and the statistical climatic method are used at flood season precipitation forecasting. The difficulty of the dynamic method is that it is too far a way to fit an operational prediction's requirement and the limit of the statistical method is that it has no power facing the case that the multi factors are simultaneously abnormal. By the examples to predict the precipitation of summer in 1998 in China, a new idea of the dynamical statistical forecasting combination is found out.In the case that two or more factors are simultaneously abnormal, use the dynamical model to separate and diagnose the dependent contribution of each abnormal factor and the combing contribution of multiple abnormal factors. The EOF analysis is applied to the numerical experiment to predict summer precipitation anomalies. The main forecasting result accords with the real distribution of summer precipitation anomalies in 1998 in China.

关 键 词：汛期 降水预测 太平洋海温 区域气候模式 青藏高原 积雪 

分 类 号：P457.6[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]