中国西北大旱年发生概率的统计推断  

A Statistical Inference from Probability of the Worst Drought Year to Occur in the Northwest China

作　　者：栗珂[1] 高炬[2] 赵东[1] 杨碧轩[1] 郭宏武[1] 

机构地区：[1]陕西省气象科学研究所,陕西西安710015 [2]陕西省气象台,陕西西安710015

出　　处：《高原气象》2001年第1期66-70,共5页Plateau Meteorology

基　　金：国家气象科技开发课题!(KY85 10 3)资助

摘　　要：根据中国西北近 5 0 0a旱涝等级资料 ,用Bernoulli试验等理论模式 ,对大旱年发生的概率特征进行了研究 ,得出大旱年发生的统计规律。在全球气候变暖的大背景下 ,给出了 2Based on the data of the classes of flood/drought about five hundred years in northwest China, using the theoretical model of Bernoulli test and others, the character of probability was studied for the worst drought to occur, the statistical rule of the worst drought year to was occurred to be obtained. In the background of the climate getting warm over the world, the result of the statistical inference of probability of the worst drought year will occur to be given in the 21th century in northwest China.

关 键 词：大旱年 概率 统计推断 西北地区 气候变暖 

分 类 号：P468.024[天文地球—大气科学及气象学] P456.8