区域碳排放空间转移特征及其经济溢出效应  

Characteristics and Economic Spillover Effect of the Regional Carbon Emissions Transfer

作　　者：孙立成[1] 程发新[1] 李群[2] 

机构地区：[1]江苏大学管理学院,江苏镇江212013 [2]中国社会科学院数量经济与技术经济研究所,北京100732

出　　处：《中国人口·资源与环境》2014年第8期17-23,共7页China Population,Resources and Environment

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目"基于产品全生命周期的企业低碳制造战略形成机制与驱动模式研究:以水泥行业为例"(编号:71273118);教育部人文社会科学研究青年基金项目"区域碳排放转移驱动机制及其对碳减排配额初始分配影响研究"(编号:13YJC630141);教育部高校博士点基金新教师类项目"区域间商品流动和碳排放转移效应:模型与实证研究"(编号:20123227120010)

摘　　要：准确把握区域碳排放转移的空间转移特征,明确其经济溢出效应是引导区域碳排放合理转移的基础。以中国省际区域为研究对象,以投入产出表为基础,采用碳排放系数法分别测算了中国省际区域碳排放转入总量及碳排放转出总量;通过构建基于地理特征和经济特征的空间权重矩阵,综合运用Moran’s I指数和地理加权回归模型分别研究了中国省际区域碳排放转移的空间分布特征及其经济溢出效应。研究结果表明:中国各省碳排放转移总量均较大,其中碳排放转入总量大于碳排放转出总量,东部及中部较发达地区均具有正的净转移特征;中国省际区域碳排放转入和碳排放转出的Moran’s I指数分别为0.17和0.14,表明中国省际区域碳排放转移在整体上具有一定的空间集群特征;中国省际区域碳排放转移在局部空间主要表现为L-L模式和H-H模式。其中东部及中部经济较为发达的地区表现为H-H模式,西部地区及中部欠发达地区表现为L-L模式,而中部地区则表现为L-H模式或H-L模式为主;中国省际区域碳排放转移经济溢出类型主要有五种具有区域特征的溢出模式,其中中国省际区域碳排放转入所产生的经济溢出效应要强于碳排放转出。最后,针对研究结果,分析了其产生的可能原因,并提出相应的优化对策和建议。Accurately grasping the spatial transfer characteristics of the regional carbon emissions transfer and clarifying the spillover effects is the basis for reasonably guiding the regional carbon emissions. In this paper, regarding the Chinese provincial region as research object, based on the input-output table, the provincial carbon emissions in and out is calculated by using the carbon emission coefficient method respectively. By constructing a spatial weight matrix based on the geographic and economic characteristics, the spatial distribution characteristics and its spillover effects of Chinese provincial carbon emissions transfer is studied by applying the Moran＇ s I index and geographically weighted regression model. The research results show that ： （1） The Chinese provincial carbon emissions transfer amount is relatively larger, and the amount of the carbon transfer in is more than out, the more developed eastern and central regions have positive net transfer. （2）The Moran＇ I of Chinese provincial carbon emissions in and out is 0. 17 and 0.14, showed that Chinese provincial carbon emissions has some characteristics of spatial cluster in the whole. （3）In the local space, the Chinese provincial carbon transfer is showed as the L - L mode and H - H mode, and the central and eastern developed area is H - H mode, the western region and central underdeveloped area is the L - L model, while the central region is mainly the L - H mode or H - L mode. （~）The economic spillover type of Chinese provincial carbon transfer has five kinds with the regional characteristics of the overflow model, and economic spillover effect of Chinese provincial carbon transfer in is stronger than out. Finally, according to the results of this study, the possible causes are analyzed, and the paper puts forward the corresponding countermeasures and suggestions. It is useful to optimize carbon emissions transfer path among the Chinese provinces and provide the important theoretical and practical basis for enhancing the ec

关 键 词：碳排放转移 经济溢出效应 Moran’s I指数 地理加权回归模型 

分 类 号：X24[环境科学与工程—环境科学]