城市交通流路段行程时间预测模型  

Forecasting Model About Travel Time of Cars in Traffic Section of Road

作　　者：杨昊[1] 钟雁[1] 钱大琳[1] 

机构地区：[1]北方交通大学交通运输学院,北京100044

出　　处：《北方交通大学学报》2001年第2期65-69,共5页Journal of Northern Jiaotong University

摘　　要：建立较为精确的城市交通流路段行程时间预测模型是建立诱导系统的关键 .本文所建的预测模型充分考虑了交通延误变化的灵敏性 ,将汽车在路段上的运行时间分为两部分 ,分别预测 .经过实测数据检验 ,该模型具有很好的效果 .While an exact model that is used to forecast the cars' travel time in a section of road is the key job of the guiding system.In the forecasting model of this thesis, having realized the sensitivity of the traffic delay's change,the author divided the whole time of the cars' traveling into two parts and forecasted each of them separately.The forecasting model was proved to be very good by factual data.

关 键 词：交通流 交通诱导 交通延误 占有率 预测模型 行程时间 

分 类 号：U491.1[交通运输工程—交通运输规划与管理] U121[交通运输工程—道路与铁道工程]