上市公司财务失败预测实证研究  

Study on Forcast of Financial Failure of Stock Market Corporations

作　　者：黄岩[1] 李元旭[1] 

机构地区：[1]复旦大学管理学院,上海200433

出　　处：《系统工程理论方法应用》2001年第1期45-51,共7页Systems Engineering Theory·Methodology·Applications

摘　　要：如何合理、有效地利用企业披露的财务信息防范企业财务失败 ,是企业持续经营与发展的一项重要内容 ,这就要求加强事前对未来可能出现的财务失败进行科学、准确地预测。本文构建了反映上市公司经营业绩和水平的综合财务预警指标体系 ;应用多元统计分析 ,以沪深股市的上市公司为样本 ,建立了中国工业类上市公司财务失败预测模型 ,给出了所研究上市公司的 Z值范围 ;并应用该模型对预测样本进行实证研究。预测结果显示 ,该预测模型是预测上市公司财务失败的一种有效、实用的方法。最后对预测模型的适用性。How to prevent financial failure by making effectively full use of the disclosed corporation financial information is a important goal of sustainable operation and development of enterprises, which requires scientific and accurate forcast before the arising of financial failure. The comprehensive warning financial indexes system of stock market corporations is constructed in this paper. By taking corporations of stock markets of Shanghai and Shenzheng as samples, we have set up forcasting models of industrial corporations in the stock market of china through multivariate statistical analyses, the Z value of each corporation has been shown. Meanwhile, we have validated the model with other test samples, the results demostrated that the procedure of our calculation are both effective and practical. In conclusion, we discuss some existing problems regarding the disclosure of financial information and its impact on the forcasting precision of the established model.

关 键 词：财务失败 预警指标 预测模型 上市公司 

分 类 号：F276.6[经济管理—企业管理] F830.9[经济管理—国民经济]