气候变化对滦河流域水资源影响的水文模式模拟(Ⅱ):模拟结果分析  

Simulation of Influence of Climate Change on Water Resource over Luanhe River Valley Using a Hydrological Model (Ⅱ): Simulated Result Analyses

作　　者：范广洲[1] 吕世华[1] 程国栋[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国科学院寒区旱区环境与工程研究所冻土工程国家重点实验室,甘肃兰州730000

出　　处：《高原气象》2001年第3期302-310,共9页Plateau Meteorology

基　　金：中国科学院"九五"重大应用基础研究项目 (ZK95 1 A1 2 0 3);国家重点基础研究发展规划项目 (G19990 435 );中国科学院寒区旱区环境与工程研究所知识创新工程重点项目"典型流域气候与环境系统模式发展研究"的资助

摘　　要：利用PRMS水文模式系统 ,模拟研究了气候变化对滦河流域丰、枯水年不同季节水资源的影响。结果表明 ,滦河流域蒸发量主要受气温变化的影响 ,受降水量变化的影响相对较小 ;且湿润季节变化绝对值较大 ,干旱季节变化百分率较大。而地表径流量、次地表径流量、地下径流量及河川径流量主要受降水量变化的影响 ,受气温变化的影响相对较小。湿润季节对气候变化的敏感性较高 ,干旱季节敏感性较低。The influence of the climate change on the water resource of the different season in rainy year and drought year over Luanhe river valley was studied by using the precipitation\|runoff modeling system. The results show that the air temperature mostly effect the evaporation of Luanhe river valley. And the influence of precipitation on the evaporation is comparatively less. The change absolute value of evaporation in humid season is greater, and its change percentage in arid season is greater. But the surface runoff, subsurface runoff, ground water and runoff are mostly effected by precipitation. The temperature influence on them is comparative less. And it is more sensitive in humid season than in arid season.

关 键 词：气候变化 滦河流域 水资源 水文模式 蒸发量 降水量 气温变化 

分 类 号：TV213[水利工程—水文学及水资源] P46[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]