模糊综合评价在负荷最优组合预测中的应用  

APPLICATION OF FUZZY COMPREHENSIVE EVALUATION FOR OPTIMIZING COMBINED LOAD FORECASTING

作　　者：孙海斌[1] 周淑雄[1] 谢敬东[1] 唐国庆[1] 

机构地区：[1]东南大学电气工程系,南京210096

出　　处：《电力系统及其自动化学报》2001年第4期8-11,共4页Proceedings of the CSU-EPSA

摘　　要：本文针对实际负荷预测工作的复杂性 ,提出了运用模糊语言评价对最优组合预测中各模型权重确定的新方法。文中考虑了预测模型的多个评价因素 ,利用模糊语言进行二级综合评优 ,并对各预测模型的评优结果进行了比较 ,分析了模型之间的优势关系 ,进而确定各模型的权重。最后 ,文中利用该方法对江苏盐城市 2 0 0 2年负荷水平进行了预测 。According to the complexity of load forecasting, the thesis presents a new method to determine the weight coefficients of each model involved in the combined forecast method. Considering several evaluating factors, a two step comprehensive evaluation is executed using fuzzy language. The results of each forecast model are compared and so come out the advantage relationships between every two models, therefor, the weight coefficient of each model is determined. At the end, a satisfying result is reached about the load level of Yancheng City in 2002 by using this method.

关 键 词：负荷预测 组合预测模型 电网 模糊综合评价 电力系统 

分 类 号：TM715[电气工程—电力系统及自动化]