分县降水概率指导预报业务系统及其应用  

Precipitation probability guidance forecast operational system for each county and its application

作　　者：戴有学 薛双青 秦爱民 吕爱丽 夏冬临 

机构地区：[1]临汾市气象局,山西临汾041000

出　　处：《山西气象》2001年第3期3-6,共4页Shanxi Meteorological Quarterly

摘　　要：本文以T106数值预报产品为基础,应用相似天气下概率最大法制作降水概率预报,然后根据其它数值预报指导产品,最新天气资料、卫星云图和预报员主观经验知识等订正概率值为思路,建立起我市分县降水概率指导预报业务系统,并运用B、Bs和Bias评分法对其进行评估。The paper produced precipitation pr obability forecast by using maximum method of probability under similar weather e vents on the basis of NWP products,an d then set up precipitation probability guidance forecast operational system according to the train of thought that used other NWP products,the newest weather data,satellite imaginary and weatherp ersons' subjective expe-rience and knowledge to revise probability value,and it' s evaluated by means of B,Bs and Bias assessing methods.

关 键 词：分县 降水概率预报 数值预报 T106产品 天气资料 卫星云图 相似天气下概率最大法 

分 类 号：P457.6[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]