摩尔定律,还能走多远?  

How Far will Moore’s Law go？

作　　者：龚明[1] 

机构地区：[1]华中科技大学计算机学院

出　　处：《现代计算机》2001年第6期75-77,共3页Modern Computer

摘　　要：摩尔定律神奇地灵验了三十多年,随着芯片上晶体管数量的增长,芯片密度越来越大,要维持摩尔预示的指数增长率将越来越难。摩尔定律究竟还能走多远?通过对芯片制造技术和现代的微处理器系统结构的分析,我们认为,摩尔定律的有效性还能保持15年左右(3～4代微芯片)。The accuracy of Moore's law has hold true as if by magic over the past 35 years. As chip's density is being larger and lager maintaining the exponential growth rate predicted by Moore is becoming increasingly difficult. How far will Moore`s law go By a brief analysis of manufacturing technologies and modern architectures we believe that Moore's law will continue to be valid for about 15 years 3 or 4 microchip generations.

关 键 词：摩尔定律 芯片 晶体管 微处理器 计算机 

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